In 2025, Nepal's "grain basket", Madhes, endured a year of climate extremes that should finally end any illusion that climate change is a distant or abstract threat. What unfolded was not a single disaster but a cascading failure – first drought, then flood – revealing how unprepared the country remains to protect its food system, its farmers, and its most climate-vulnerable region.

The year began with a prolonged, scorching drought that left fields barren, paddy saplings withered, and wells running dry. In towns and villages alike, families queued daily for drinking water, while children struggled to focus in overcrowded classrooms, sometimes with hundreds of students relying on one or two failing ceiling fans.

When the monsoon finally arrived, it brought brief relief but no recovery. Its withdrawal was delayed, continuing a pattern observed for several consecutive years. What followed were days of intense and uninterrupted rainfall that coincided with the critical paddy harvest period. The violent swing from drought to flood was not an anomaly: It was a clear signal that Madhes is now on the frontline of a devastating two-sided climate crisis.

The final and most painful chapter came in October and November, when unseasonal downpours destroyed ready-to-harvest crops. Forecasts had been issued repeatedly. Yet damage remained devastatingly high, exposing a fundamental weakness in Nepal's climate preparedness: early warning systems that fail to reach farmers in time, or to translate information into actionable decisions at the local level.

The scale of loss was staggering. Madhes recorded the highest crop damage in the country, with losses estimated at Rs 2.98 billion. Across all districts, 9,186 hectares of paddy, vegetables, fruits, and sugarcane were submerged or eroded. Total crop loss reached an estimated 99,833 metric tons. These figures represent more than economic damage; they signal a direct threat to national food security.

For farmers, the crisis was deeply personal. Many had barely survived the planting-season drought, only to lose everything just as they prepared to harvest. For them, climate change is no longer a future risk – it is a lived reality that determines whether families eat, repay loans, or keep farming at all. When Madhes suffers, the entire country feels the impact.

This destructive "too much, too little" water cycle is being intensified by human action. Unregulated sand and gravel extraction from the Chure hills and riverbeds has stripped the region of its natural water retention capacity. Wetlands have shrunk, ponds have disappeared, and river systems have become more volatile. As a result, downstream communities are increasingly exposed to both prolonged droughts and sudden floods. Experts have repeatedly warned that without urgent investment in watershed recharge and conservation, Madhes will face worsening water scarcity alongside more destructive flooding, threatening livelihoods and food supplies far beyond provincial borders.

Across the province, lived experiences tell the same story. Rice saplings were fed to cattle because there was no water to transplant them. Months later, those same fields lay submerged. Young people spent nights waiting in queues for irrigation coupons at deep-boring pumps. For many families, even securing drinking water became a daily struggle. The land that feeds much of Nepal is itself becoming increasingly unlivable.

Public frustration has only grown in response to the government's predictable reliance on short-term solutions. After declaring a drought, the then Prime Minister announced the installation of 500 new deep borings across Madhes – without consulting provincial or local governments, or affected communities. Yet hundreds, if not thousands, of deep borings already exist in the province, many abandoned due to technical failures, lack of electricity, or poor management.

Farmers, youth, and civil society groups have repeatedly warned that deep borings are not a sustainable solution. Local leaders have aptly described them as a "painkiller" – a temporary response that accelerates groundwater depletion during drought and does nothing to address flooding. What communities resent most is not just the inefficiency of these measures, but the persistence of top-down decision-making that ignores local knowledge and lived experience.

Research shows that Madhes has lost or seen the degradation of 839 ponds in just the past decade. Without ponds, groundwater recharge becomes impossible and floodwaters have nowhere to drain. Communities understand what policymakers often overlook: restoring ponds, wetlands, and rainwater harvesting systems is the foundation of resilience against both droughts and floods. Young people across Madhesh have been vocal in calling for climate-friendly development, awareness programs, and meaningful participation in climate decision-making.

The political leadership must confront a hard truth. Failure to address the "too much, too little" water crisis is directly undermining Nepal's food security. The solutions are neither radical nor unattainable. They require an integrated approach to water management: restoring ponds and wetlands for storage and groundwater recharge; protecting the Chure through conservation and reforestation; supporting traditional irrigation systems such as kulo and nahar; and strengthening climate services and early warning systems that are accessible, actionable, and delivered in local languages through SMS, radio, and community networks. Equally important is restoring natural drainage pathways that have been blocked or degraded over decades.

Yet, year after year, these measures are sidelined in favour of quick announcements and politically convenient infrastructure projects.

The province cannot afford to keep reacting after disaster strikes. The next drought is coming. So is the next flood driven by erratic rainfall. Preparedness must move beyond policy documents to early investment, clear accountability, and genuine coordination across all levels of government. Communities are ready to act. What they need are responsive institutions, practical technical support, and leaders willing to listen.

Kharel and Bogati lead a climate change adaptation project across Madhes Province