Russian frustrations can put the whole world in jeopardy, especially the West block. So, the powerful leaders and diplomats should act very carefully and in a smart way to stop the war from escalating further, reversing a possible disaster. Renowned media should play an equally balanced role without provoking or accelerating the current crisis
Russia has invaded Ukraine while surrounding that country on three sides. We all are aware of this terrible situation right now. Let's analyse the past and study going back in short.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) expanded eastward, eventually taking in most of the European nations that had been under the communist sphere. The Baltic republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, once parts of the Soviet Union, joined NATO, as did Poland, Romania and others. As a result, NATO moved hundreds of miles closer to Moscow, directly bordering Russia.
Meanwhile, the US had been urging and wanting Ukraine to join NATO so that it could create a military base and actively participate in the security training right near the Russian border. Putin has repeatedly invoked the spectre of American ballistic missiles and combat forces in Ukraine.
The Russian president calls NATO's expansion menacing, and the prospect of Ukraine joining it a major threat to his country.
Besides security threats to Russia, there are several reasons the war has been provoked despite its criticism.
We can sense multiple political and tactical strategies with the vested interests of a few countries to stop the gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, worth around €10 billion ($ 15 billion), which was completed last September.
Russia is a key part of the 15-nation partnership that has kept the ISS orbiting the earth for 23years at a very low level at the current moment. So, there is also a possibility of the 500-ton structure falling on any country. So space power with flow of information war is also playing a key factor in triggering the attack right now.
As the Soviet Union began developing oil and gas pipelines to Europe, Europe's energy dependence on Russia became a particular concern in Washington.
Europe lost an invaluable leader and negotiator with Moscow after the departure of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who speaks fluent Russian and had developed bilateral relations with the Russian president. Her successor Olaf Scholz has tried to take on a leadership role in the crisis that escalated soon after his election, halting certification of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that would link his country with Russia – one of the strongest moves yet by the West to punish the Kremlin.
Nord stream 2(started in 1997) is a very ambitious energy project, which consists of a system of natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and includes two pipelines.
The original Nord Stream pipeline, with an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic metres (bcm), was finished in late 2012. The pipeline system's total capacity is set to double to 110 bcm following Nord Stream 2's completion. The pipeline crosses the exclusive economic zones of five countries: Russia, Germany, Denmark, Finland and Sweden.
The United States has long been an opponent of the pipeline, and the already-fraught transatlantic relations have continued to deteriorate over the project.
The administrations of both U.S. presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, have clearly expressed their opposition to the pipeline, and the country introduced sanctions in December 2019, forcing pipelaying vessels by Swiss company Allseas to stop working on the project and leading to months-long delay.
Threats of more sanctions in mid-2020 now endanger the completion of the pipeline.
Russia's use of trade and energy to create dependencies has given it a strong hand – one that the US and its European allies have limited options to counter or need to think twice to suppress the move in agro-economic ways.
The price hike of daily consumable things will aggravate in Europe, and the economic crisis will certainly pound all over even if peace prevails.
The US and its allies are coordinating to not only freeze the assets of Putin and his allies, but also to seize those assets as well.
This is highly provocative and acting as a catalyst remaining at a safe place. If the leaders keep on provoking Russia with all kinds of sanctions around, things will be very scary for all the Western allies.
Why would Putin risk sanctions, and perhaps a terrible economic crisis, as a result? And if he is not really willing to risk all these things, then why is he playing this game? Why is he moving even though the giant countries are against him? The questions keep growing and multiplying in their own imaginary terms and conditions.
I think Putin was aware of all these incoming situations that trigger the image and socio-political system for a long period of time.
But are we aware that Kremlin thinks beyond the horizon about the consequences if everyone is against one land with specific sanctions and isolation? If Putin chooses a nuclear option, is there anyone to stop him? If the leaders of Russia achieve what they have thought of, it might be peace around the Western circle as well(for a couple of years). What if they suffer heavy casualties and are prompted to adopt a more deadly – even an atomic – war against all the nations that are fighting and supporting Ukraine right now, especially Western allies? I would like to borrow the view shared by senior journalist of BBC Steve Rosenberg that should Russia deviate towards a nuclear war, then 'the first target will be to explode a nuclear weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark'.
In summary, Russian frustrations can put the whole world in jeopardy, especially the West block with an insecure life. So, the powerful leaders and diplomats should act very carefully and in a smart way to stop the war from escalating further, reversing a possible disaster. Renowned media should play an equally balanced role without provoking or accelerating the current crisis and act as a bridge between two responsible neighbours in a peaceful manner.
Pray for peace.
Ojha is an engineer for a multinational company in Denmark
A version of this article appears in the print on March 7, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
