The political stalemate, far from showing any sign of receding, is all set to take a turn for the worse, judging by the words and actions of the political actors. The seven-party alliance’s four-day general strike (April 6-9) and ‘non-cooperation’ is becoming an issue for a fierce fight between the government and the alliance. Tuesday’s warnings by Home Minister Kamal Thapa and the spokesperson of the Royal Nepalese Army, Brigadier General Nepal Bhusan Chand on the one hand and the alliance’s determination to go ahead with its protests on the other present a frightening scenario, which might well eclipse what had happened during protests in recent months. The last ‘massive’ rally the alliance had planned (January 20) could not take place because the government clamped down a daylong curfew in the Kathmandu Valley, claiming that well-armed Maoists had entered the capital for disruptive purposes.

The bogey is now being raised to justify all means that the government says it will employ to thwart the alliance’s programme. On his part, the army spokesperson said the RNA may mobilise the troops during next week’s protests, claiming that the Maoists’ ‘Special Task Force’ has sneaked into the Valley and that the army has ‘arrested some of them’. However, the public has yet to be shown the detainees with their arms, as done earlier. Thapa also made the claim, not shared by many, that the flagging spirit of the Maoists was lifted by the political parties through the 12-point understanding, and accused the parties of playing into the hands of the Maoists. The last time’s official claim of Maoist infiltration was not vindicated, in the eye of most people, and it is anybody’s guess how the current claim will be taken.

The main issue is how to avoid the unpleasant clashes between the government and the demonstrators. If lives were lost during the protests, it could escalate the conflict further, plunging the country into a full-blown civil war. Because of its geopolitical position, Nepal cannot withstand a civil war, which will aggravate the risk of foreign intervention. A tough attitude on its part will not resolve problems for the government, particularly in view of its widely disputed claim to power. A sole military pursuit seems to be an unwise approach, as it will prolong the misery of the people rather than ensuring a victory for anybody. The people want peace and reconciliation among the political forces, but within a fully democratic framework. It is the government which should take immediate initiative to avert what threatens to be a costly confrontation.