Doubts still exist about whether the election to the Constituent Assembly (CA) will be held on April 10, which is just less than sixty days away. Those who stand to lose directly with the successful holding of the election, because the CA is to abolish the monarchy formally, are expected to wish to see, or do what is in their power, to ensure that the polls do not come off at all. So are the others, inside and outside the country, who either favour retention of the monarchy or do not see the election as likely to further their interests. Various outfits in the Tarai that have sprouted in recent times have been using intimidation, extortion, general strike or violence, or all of these, in a bid to cow the government into acceding to their demands, though the constitution was amended twice within a year to address their various basic demands. Even those groups, who claim to be leading a peaceful agitation, have been found to be trying to disrupt others’ political rallies or activity.

Unsurprisingly, the royalists and agitators in the Tarai are saying that the scheduled election cannot take place because of the security situation, particularly in the Tarai. But even some of the central SPA leaders are making public statements of uncertainty or doubt. Chief Election Commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokhrel’s statements to that effect yesterday have deepened public doubt further. Minister for Peace and Reconstruction Ram Chandra Paudel has urged, yet again, the Madhesi leaders to come for talks before launching any new round of agitation. Three new Tarai parties — Nepal Sadbhawana Party (Mahato), Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) and Tarai Madhes Democratic Party (TMDP) — on Saturday announced the formation of a new front, called the United Madhesi Democratic Front (UMDF), and put forward a six-point demand, including the constitutional guarantee of an autonomous Madhes region with the right of self-determination. It is to start an indefinite strike in the Tarai from the day after tomorrow if its demands are not met.

Prime Minister Koirala said the other day that all the remaining demands of the Tarai groups would be fulfilled after the CA election. Top political leaders should not use such blanket terms on such sensitive issues, raising false hopes. The right to self-determination cannot simply be granted; no government in South Asia countenances this demand within its own territory. Furthermore, the demand for the establishment of the entire southern belt lengthwise — from Mechi in the east to Mahakali in the west — as one federal state is equally indefensible, as it ignores the historical, linguistic, ethnic, cultural and other differences in the Tarai itself. Such demands tend to arouse public suspicion of motive. Already, groups in the Tarai and elsewhere have got more than what they had dreamed of before. If the political transition is to be successful, all the various groups across the country should stress common interests — such as equality, justice, human rights, democracy, devolution of powers to the grassroots within the framework of independence and territorial integrity of the nation.