By-elections are important as they are considered to be the litmus test of the government's performance
The by-election being held in three constituencies in the coming week has dominated the news headlines at the present. It has sent a political wave throughout the country in general and the concerned constituencies in particular. Out of the three constituencies, two have attracted comparatively more attention of the people. One of these is Chitwan, where the chair of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Rabi Lamicchane, is contesting the election. The other candidates are Jit Bahadur Shrestha from the Nepali Congress and Ram Prasad Neupane of the Unified Marxist-Leninist.
The other constituency which has occupied the centre stage is, of course, that of Tanahu, where Swarnim Wagley, the erstwhile NC stalwart, is competing under the banner of the RSP after tendering his resignation from the NC. His chief rival is Govinda Bhattarai representing the NC.
In the third constituency of Bara, Upendra Yadav, the president of Janata Samajbadi Party(JSP), is in the election fray, but it has not been the talk of the town like the Chitwan constituency.
It is because of the citizenship issue that stripped Lamicchane of the ministerial post and the membership of the Parliament. Similarly, Shiv Chandra Kushbaha is contesting the election in Bara after eloping from the Maoist Centre (MC) to the Janamat Party (JMP) as did Wagley from the NC to the RSP. But the latter has been more talked about in the hallowed political clusters of the country.
By-elections are important as they are considered to be the litmus test of the government's performance. The victory of the opposition parties indicates their ballooning popularity followed by waning perception of the government. It is in this context that the government coalition and the opposition party, the UML, have left no stones unturned in securing their victory. These by-elections are seriously taken by the UML after it has been politically ditched by Prime Minister Prachanda by joining the earlier coalition partners, the NC and the Unified Socialists.
The history of the by-election goes back to the time of Oliver Cromwell in the United Kingdom in the first half of the sixteenth century. He was the Lord Chamberlain under King Henry, the Eighth. This was the time when the father of the illustrious King Mahendra Malla, Amar Malla, was the king in Nepal. Mahendra Malla was notable because he would not eat without ensuring that there was smoke coming out of everybody's house, indicating that nobody was hungry. The first by-election in Nepal, however, goes back to the year 1959. Later, it was held in 1992, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2019 and now in the year 2023.
This by-election is also notable because of the scandal that erupted around the RSP parliamentarian who was elected under the proportional representation system, Dhaka Kumar Shrestha. He is alleged to have asked for Rs 20 million from the medical tycoon Durga Prasad Parsai to be the Minister for Health, according to a recently released audio tape containing such conversation.
This has certainly taken considerable gloss out of the RSP because it came into prominence in no time after it pledged to fight against the rampant corruption in the country. But its own seeming engagement in corruption has baffled many of the supporters. It is obvious that the huge margin that Rabi enjoyed over its rivals in the last election will be a matter of history now, and his rivals have even started predicting his defeat.
This episode has given the impression that the new parties in Nepal have also emulated the old parties on several fronts, including the corrupt practices. The red carpet welcome given to Kushbaha by the JMP, who had recently lost the general election while contesting from the MC, certainly reflects this harsh reality. The twin instances of the entry of the MC leader in the JMP and that of NC's Wagley in the RSP by sidelining one's own party members are certain to fuel dissatisfaction within these parties.
The forthcoming by-election has entered an interesting phase. If the UML sweeps the election in all the constituencies, it will bolster its image which has been battered badly after its failure to save the coalition formed under its leadership. It will provide the wherewithal for its loudmouthed leader K P Oli to crack a few more proverbs. If the result goes the other way, it will bring relief to Prime Minister Prachanda because he has the support of all the major parties contesting the by-election, the NC, RSP, JSP and JMP.
The PM is in a political soup because he has not been able to expand the cabinet fully despite spending 100 days in the government, more popularly known as the honeymoon period after its main coalition partner, the NC, failed to send its ministers following intra-party conflict. His achievements of the honeymoon period published recently consisting of political sundries such as congratulating the winning Nepali Cricket team were at the best hollow.
He has been hurled with question marks by Gagan Thapa, the NC's general secretary, expressing dissatisfaction on the performance of the government. The NC's leader, Sher Bahadur Deuba, has said that the days are not far off when his party will be leading the government. As if this was not enough, the leader of the JMP, CK Raut, has expressed doubt about the continuation of the Prime Minister.
This by-election is taking place at a time when the country is suffering the worst of its economic health in view of the recession observed in the market. The economic indicators have shown marginal increase recently, but this phenomenon may be like the proverbial brightening of an extinguishing lamp. The by-election has thus been like a necessary unnecessity or unnecessary necessity in view of nothing encouraging underway in the country, either on the economic or political front.
A version of this article appears in the print on April 18, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.
