The political route for the coalition is going to be more thorny in the days to come. Decisions have to be made based on reason more than passion. The win of Balendra Shah, a Madhesi in Newar-dominated Kathmandu, and that of Rajesh Man Singh, a Newar in Madhesi-dominated Birgunj, shows that emotions no longer dominate politics today
The coalition partners heading the government in Nepal are like a recently wed couple reflecting about their wedlock after the completion of the honeymoon trip. Some of the behaviours that cast a spell earlier may appear not that charming, and those which appeared rather modest may be more appealing.
There might be some who may take in their stride, however disappointing may be each other's traits, and there might be others seeking for outright divorce rather than suffer in silence.
In fact, the Rastriya Jana Morcha (RJM) had taken the second trajectory by pulling out of the coalition following the passage of the Millennium Challenge Corporation by the parliament.
But its breezy stand did not last long, and it quickly made a volte face by opting for reunion after the soaring passions settled down to reality.
Coalition has come here to stay in the politics of Nepal, and it cannot be wished out of existence as a single party is less likely to receive a majority in the parliament for two reasons.
Firstly, there is the provision of proportional representation in the parliament.
Secondly, political parties should secure at least 3 per cent of the votes cast to be eligible as a national party. In the local election, the UML (Unified Marxist- Leninist) had time and again said that they enjoyed such people's support that it did not need the support of any party. But they were reduced to second position from the prestigious first position that they were enjoying.
Despite this, none of the partners appear to be happy with what has emerged out of the coalition. There are many in the Nepali Congress (NC) who feel that it could have registered a win in more number of seats had it gone alone.
So have the Maoist-Centre (MC) and the Unified Socialist (US)aired their views in public.
The US has gone to the extent of saying that they were ditched badly in the local elections. The relations with the NC appears to have further soured after Prime Minister Deuba refused to administer the oath of office to the new ministers recommended by the US, citing the budget session was underway in the parliament where the ministers have to respond to the queries made to them.
This is what appears on the surface, but deep inside also lies the tremor that it would trigger in the other coalition partners, pressuring them for a change of ministers.
This is nonetheless the first of the bitter truths in a series of similar ones that are likely to follow in the future.
For example, the US cannot have five ministers in the parliament in view of its win in just 20odd municipalities.
This may not be pleasing to the US, but the reality is that the Prime Minister is under heavy pressure to include more NC members as ministers.
The MC may get one more berth in the future cabinet reshuffle in view of its marginally improved 22 per cent win as against the NC with 65, Janata SamajbadiParty (JSP) 6 per cent and US with 3 per cent of the mayoral/chairperson posts. In the present 22-member government, the Nepali Congress has nine ministers while the MC, US and JSP have four each and RJM a solitary one.
According to the fresh people's mandate, the NC, MC, JSP and US will be entitled to 14, 5,2 and 1 ministers respectively.
The RJM does not deserve even a single minister in view of its win in only 4 municipal mayoral/chairperson berths.
The coalition also has to crack a tough nut of deciding the number of candidates for the next election.
The local election was easier to decide because provision was made for the parties to contest in places where they had won the election last time. In the seats won by the UML, they were divided among the coalition partners.
In the forthcoming election, the only yardstick is the people's mandate received in the local election.
Accordingly, the NC will vie in 108seats, MC in 40, JSP in 9 and US in 7 seats out of the 165 seats available for grabs based on 329, 121, 30 and 20 mayoral/chairperson seats won, totalling 504. The RJM may contest in 1 seat.
Whether this will be acceptable to the coalition parties is in the future's cocoon.
The 65:35 ratio may not be agreeable to the coalition partners, and they may demand for more number of seats from the NC. But it may cite the Indian scenario where the Bharatiya Janata Party and Indian Congress have gone for a 72:28 seats distribution with its allies.
The political route for the coalition is going to be dominated by less roses and more thorns in the days to come. The decisions have to be made based on reason more than passion. The win of Balendra Shah, a Madhesi in Newar-dominated Kathmandu, and that of Rajesh Man Singh, a Newar in Madhesi-dominated Birgunj, shows that emotions no longer dominate politics these days.
The most rational approach would be to have a coalition based on ideological similarity. Ideologically speaking, the NC could forge a coalition with the JSP and Loktantric Samajbadi Party. But it may be inadequate to form a government. It explains the indispensability of the MC in the coalition equation.
Parties of diagonally opposite ideologies are also found to have entered into a coalition in the past. The coalition of the Indian Congress and the Communist Party led by Prakash Karat can be taken as an example even though it withdrew its support over the Indo-US treaty, indicating that relations between parties with opposite ideologies can be wafer thin.
Similarly, the MC, US and RJM did not see eye to eye with the NC on the MCC issue.
Accordingly, the NC should tie the knot with the MC even if it means coasting with a rather uneasy Prachanda who will not only repeatedly claim the berth of the Prime Minister but also act as the de facto one even otherwise to remain in the limelight.
A version of this article appears in the print on June 14, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
