Global warming, climate change and extinction

The beauty of nature was beautifully depicted in the words of Charles Darwin- the prospect of the wild forest will make any naturalist lick the dust from the foot of a Brazilian- when he explored the Brazilian rainforest 150 years ago. The beauty however is at stake not only in the Brazilian territory but across the globe after the 150 years after the theory of evolution grabbed global attention. Today we are counting the number of species left which embraced the beauty with nature for centuries. More than 20 per cent of the total species living on the planet today are closer to their extinction by the grace of human greed and

self-centeredness. Darwin might have the logic of evolution of life from the principles of extinction but we are talking of nearly half a million species to get lost from this natural

paradise through the ensuing evolution of catastrophes.

The climate change today, very anthropogenic, can dramatically abate the species richness that the Earth ever witnessed.The earth’s mean annual temperature is projected to increase by at least 2°C by 2020.The mean annual rise of 2°C may sound nominal but is a harbinger of cataclysm for biological richness. Climate is an inextricable component for the survival of the species in any domain. Temperature rises can alter the entire basis of the survival of living species especially those which are vulnerable, and characterized by: limited climatic ranges, restricted habitat requirements, reduced mobility, or isolated or small populations. The International Union of Conservation (IUCN) has predicted twenty thousand vulnerable species on the edge of extinction today through the direct influences of warming climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) however has

estimated the average temperature of Earth to rise by about 6 °C by 2050 on the basis of the present trend. This can be apocalyptic even to those species which have higher resistivity than vulnerable species.

Biologists have pointed that climate change and habitat losses of species act in synergy to cause extinction of species. Habitat losses such as deforestation on the other hand contribute to warming by releasing carbon in the atmosphere. Habitat loss is the primary stress to species which further is magnified by the effects of climate change. Many species have evolved to live in a particular and often narrowly-defined environment. As temperatures rise and other effects of a changing climate intensify, their environments are likely to change too quickly for them to either adapt to or to migrate to somewhere more suitable. Species deprived of adaptive facilities, habitat being the major one, will hardly survive extinction.

Species extinction is one of the major irreversible impacts of climate change. The recently extinct golden toad and Monteverde harlequin frog have already been labeled as the first victims of climate change. Impacts of climate change on species are relatively difficult to detect directly since it operates to some extent by increasing the impact of other factors such as diseases that cost golden toad and other amphibians their survival. Climate change can perturb the ecological balance thereby augmenting several detrimental effects to the species. Disease outbreaks in plants and animals, natural disasters, alterations in bio-geo chemical cycles, etc. can increase due to climate change.

There have been five extinction waves on the Earth before. We very probably have entered the sixth great extinction wave. And this time the cause is not an errant asteroid or mega volcanoes. We can’t deny-it’s us.

Earth is livable as it owns components to support lives. One of the major components is complex interrelationships among species in terms of food web, bio-chemical cycles and many more in ecosystems. If varieties of species get less, the life supporting system will gradually get weaker. Many studies have shown that the more species living in an ecosystem, the healthier and more productive it is. Healthier ecosystems are worth economic values to humans - a recent study of World Wildlife Fund (WWF) estimates the economic value of Amazon rain forest’s ecosystem services to be up to $ 100 per hectare.

Nepal, a paradise for many species, may see unprecedented loss of species in the coming years. Apart from threatened species, largely due to habitat loss, other species such as Alnus nepalensis are suffering the repercussions of climate change. A recent study has shown increasing phonological disorders in Alnus nepalensis largely contributed by the warming climate. Detailed studies can reveal the impacts of

climate change on the species of Nepal.

We hardly can stop the initial wave of extinction due to global temperature rise of 2°C by 2020. We probably will lose twenty thousand species. But, we still are capable to slow the extinction rate by slowing the temperature rises estimated for 2050 and afterwards. We have to stringently cutback the greenhouse gas emissions and not let global temperature rise by 5 or 6°C. We cannot afford the loss of more than half a million species if we want a life sustaining planet for the future.