Transition

From Haiti to Iraq and Afghanistan to the occupied Palestinian territories, the age demographic of rebellion and terror is remarkably similar. A US government-sponsored research team, the State Failure Task Force, identified infant mortality as the most consistent predictor of political collapse and social unrest. Other researchers have shown that countries with large proportions of young people are inordinately vulnerable to political and civil disorder and the rise of militarism. What is new is the realisation that these seemingly disparate factors are two parts of a single story, a process that social scientists call demographic transition. This transition is the shift in any population from large families and short lives to small families and long lives.

The demographic connection to conflict offers a ray of hope in a time of need. Progress through the transition means future generations may know a more peaceful and politically stable world. Continued progress is fragile, however, and will require public funding and political will for good health care, education and improvements in the status of women. It would help if governments began to think of investments in international family planning and AIDS prevention not as political footballs but as prudent strategies to help make

the 21st century safer for all than the last century proved to be. — The New York Times