Pakistan and its president, Pervez Musharraf, are passing through turbulence. The causes may be traced to clashes between religious extremists and civil society; conflicts with autonomous regions or with Afghanistan and India; and Musharraf’s autocratic style of governing. But if policy makers in the Bush administration have learned anything from their past blunders, they will refrain from imposing their own parochial policy ideas upon countries about which they are egregiously ignorant.

Under previous civilian governments, and with obvious military complicity, the nuclear engineer AQ Khan perpetrated the most dangerous acts of proliferation. If the wrong forces come to power in Pakistan, Bush’s misreadings of Iraq, Iran, Syria, North Korea, and last summer’s war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah may seem minor mistakes by comparison.

Ideally, Musharraf would enlarge his base of support and choose between his roles of army chief and head of state. He could acquire greater legitimacy if he formed an electoral partnership with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. But these are matters for Pakistanis to decide, without lectures from an administration that has been no more competent at promoting democratic change abroad than at coping with the aftermath of a hurricane.