If avian influenza starts sweeping through the world’s population anytime soon, neither the US nor international health authorities will be prepared to cope with it. There is not enough vaccine or antiviral medicine available to protect more than a handful of people. It has been 37 years since the last pandemic hit. So by historic patterns we are due for another. An ominous strain of avian influenza, known as H5N1, first became a matter of health concern in 1997 when it was found to have jumped from birds to humans in Hong Kong. It has since infected poultry, domestic ducks and migratory birds in nine countries. Ominously, the virus has developed the ability to jump to a range of mammals. The situation could be alarming if the virus mutates or combines its genes with a human influenza virus. The urgent need is to control the disease in poultry and other animals that might spread the virus to humans. Countries like Vie-tnam, which accounts for almost 80 per cent of the human cases, need more prodding and international assistance to fight the disease. Many experts are doubtful that it would be possible to detect and contain an outbreak of transmissible influenza in time to head off a pandemic. But that may be the best hope until we upgrade today’s fragile and unreliable vaccine production system. — The New York Times