In an effort to deter the international community from imposing sanctions against Iran, the mullahs are trying to instil fear in the Western capitals that if pushed to the wall, they will resort to extreme measures. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took the lead in stressing, “The Islamic Republic is prepared to transfer the experience, knowledge and technology of its scientists.” However, such statements have to be viewed in the context of Iran’s maladroit attempts to fend off international pressure, as opposed to an actual willingness to share its nuclear know-how with its terrorist allies.

There are a host of reasons to worry about a theocratic Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Secure in the knowledge that they could inflict horrific pain on adversaries that might dare to oppose their regional designs by force, Iran’s mullahs would feel free to bully their Sunni neighbours, co-opt a weak Iraqi state, confront Israel and complicate American military options. A nuclear Iran might trigger a round of proliferation that would end with a volatile, economically vital region bristling with weapons of mass destruction. There is one reason, however, why we shouldn’t worry about a nuclear Iran. The mullahs are not about to give their nukes away to terrorist groups.

Iran’s terrorist activities are largely confined to the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Gone are the days of the revolution when Iran subsidised militant groups plotting against the Gulf monarchies and dispatched assassination squads to murder dissidents abroad. Nonetheless, Tehran remains attached to the lethal Hizbullah and has done much to sustain both Hamas and Palestine’s Islamic Jihad. Would Iran be tempted to offer its potential nuclear arsenal to such forces as they wage their campaigns against Israel?

The answer such questions requires a better understanding of the nature of the Iranian-Israeli conflict. For nearly three decades, Iran’s mullahs have castigated Israel as a usurper of sacred Islamic lands and as an instrument of American imperialism in the Middle East. For Tehran, it is important for groups that keep this flame alive and wage conflict against Israel. Yet Iran has regulated its conflict with Israel. By prodding violence, while containing it, Iran is free to burnish its Islamist credentials without necessarily exposing itself to inordinate danger.

Hence the fact remains that Iran has not transferred any of its more potent weapons to its fighting friends. This is especially striking in the case of Hizbullah.

This powerful Shiite organisation has served faithfully as Iran’s aircraft carrier, projecting Tehran’s power within and outside the region. Yet Tehran has not provided it with advanced weaponry. This is not to say that the regime has been parsimonious with its protégé.

Hizbullah has received more than 10,000 Katyusha rockets, some of them newer Fajr 5s, and even an unmanned aerial drone. But the blister, choking and nerve agents in Iran’s arsenal have been withheld, as have longer range, more accurate missiles.

If Tehran has not transferred its deadliest wares to Hizbullah, then it is unlikely it will transfer them at all. The mullahs may be hostile to Israel, but they know that if conflict escapes its controlled parameters, it would threaten their own hold on power. — The Christian Science Monitor