Two scenarios appear to be emerging at the present juncture. The first one is the attainment of the consensus from among the coalition partners, for which the Prime Minister is leaving no stones unturned. The second one is the tabling in the Parliament in the case of failure to arrive at a common understanding
The Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) nut has gone half way down the throat of Nepal, which it can neither swallow it nor spit it out.
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is running from pillar to post to secure its approval from the Parliament.
The partners of the coalition are insisting on making certain amendments that they think are suicidal to the country before arriving at a consensus. The UML is sitting on the fence to the surprise of the people in view of its earlier support for the MCC and the indifference now.
The Nepali Congress (NC) only appears to be honestly pursuing the passing of the MCC from the Parliament by virtue of having signed the agreement.
But all the other three, the UML, the Maoists and the CPN-Unified Socialist, have once again shown their political hypocrisy by earlier accepting and now close to rejecting it.
It is because the coalition government of the NC and Maoist Centre (MC) had put the signature on the treaty. The UML on the other hand had earlier tried to table it in the Parliament.
The US had not yet come into existence, and it was under the UML fold then.
Such treaties have been detrimental to the political parties, looking at the political history of Nepal. The Nepali Congress has been alleged to have indulged in nation sell out with the signing of the Koshi Treaty.
The UML fragmented into two parts after supporting the Mahakali Treaty, following which it had to suffer heavy defeat at the hand of the Nepali Congress in the ensuing national election.
And now the coalition is on verge of collapse due to the differing perceptions of the coalition parties regarding the MCC.
Two scenarios appear to be emerging at the present juncture. The first one is the attainment of the consensus from among the coalition partners, for which the Prime Minister is leaving no stones unturned.
The second one is the tabling in the Parliament in the case of failure to arrive at a common understanding.
Judging by the present mood of the coalition partners, Deuba is unlikely to secure agreement about the treaty. In the absence of agreement, the tabling of the treaty in the Parliament by the Prime Minister might face resistance from the Speaker. The present Speaker has already been alleged to be working on partisan lines by the UML for not ousting the 14 UML parliamentarians who opened a new party – the United Socialists headed by Madhav Nepal.
The earlier Speaker, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, had also done so when the then Prime Minister, K P Sharma Oli, had forwarded the treaty for deliberation in the Parliament. It then appears that Deuba's proposition will also gather dust in the Parliament's cupboard as did Oli's.
The best option is then to postpone the MCC till the formation of a newly elected government following the three rounds of election.
The United States has already agreed for extension by five months ending on this month. It might as well give a nod for yet another extension. Because it will be better for the United States to receive approval from the government which enjoys a majority in the Parliament.
The likelihood of the Nepali Congress emerging victorious with majority is still running strong, and it will make the signing easier in view of its steadfast support for the treaty.
Because the intent to go forward will certainly lead to the breakup of the coalition, in a way, it will be better than pulling along with the coalition for several reasons.
Firstly, the coalition culture has not yet been established in Nepal. One can vividly remember how it backfired for the Nepali Congress when it supported the MC in Chitwan in the last local election, which led to the victory of Prachanda's daughter Renu Dahal. This was also responsible for the dismal showing of the NC in the following hustings.
But it went normally in the case of the UML, MC coalition in the last election because for the communist parties it is easier to vote for each other due to some basic ideological similarities.
There were apprehensions that supporters of the UML would not vote for the MC.
But it did not happen, and it led to a landslide victory of the Nepal Communist Party.
For a Nepali Congress supporter, it is very difficult to vote for any other election symbol other than the tree as it has been the practice since a very long time.
For a democrat, it is indeed difficult to vote for the communists because of the diagonal difference between these two political ideologies.
But that will mean tying the political knot again with the UML. This is neither easy because it would mean that Deuba will have to play second fiddle to Oli by virtue of its leading a smaller party than the UML in the Parliament. It will also have to share the ignominy of supporting the unconstitutional move of dissolving the Parliament.
The other alternative is that the UML may find it convenient to cobble up with the MC and US and lead the government instead of supporting Deuba.
This is neither very easy given the high political animosity existing between these parties. The country will be faced with several alternatives, and they will lead to an uncertain future.
The best option at the present is then to postpone the MCC and continue with the coalition government by following a middle path. The middle path can be to stay together in the constituencies where possible and separately in the remaining seats. This alternative will not lead the country to a political vacuum.
Moreover, the parties also can exercise their electoral support. It brings to an end the present wrangling between the UML and the coalition partners, especially the MC and the U.S. about the supremacy of one above the other. It will be clear after the election regarding who enjoys more popularity among the people.
A version of this article appears in the print on February 8, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
