New dimensions For PM Nepal to manoeuvre
The latest visit of Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal to India has surprisingly thrown up all the
new elements and hopes. While the Indian side has demonstrated new elements following dramatic turn of events, the Nepalese side has landed hopes, with the first hope being better trading terms.
One can rephrase the visit as something which has gone beyond any analysis, so to say, with the Indian side surprising even the diehard anti-Indian elements in Nepal which have long been saying India cannot be expected to agree to anything which might boost Nepalese economy or the political system as a whole.
The fact that the business and manufacturing leaders who were in the prime ministerial contingent have come out with highly charitable reaction to the revised trade regime suggests that the Indian side has truly come up with a set of offers that can be expected to boost the Nepalese economy to begin with.
That incidentally matches the demand put forth by Prime Minister Nepal during the visit and which stressed on helping Nepal build up its economy so that the conflict can be addressed suitably. The demand to build up the Nepalese economy now stands addressed.
How could it have happened? is the question which comes up almost as immediately as the reports that the Indian side has conceded major demand put up by the delegation. There are a couple of reasons behind the change and are in order ahead.
The latest is that the western world in looking at Nepal through the eyes of the Indian side. That is
because India being a democratic and strategic nation is being seen as a dependable partner to ultimately take on China in the region as part of the long-term strategy of the west and also that of India in what is a convergence of interests. And since Nepal is next to China and thus very much a crucial tool in the global game it demands that all the western nations and India cultivate working relationship with Nepal.
That had gone a great
deal in reshaping Indian foreign policy towards Nepal which has begun with
the improvement in trade ties. That is because the
Indian foreign policy has now received a dash of
the western policy of
helping Nepal along economically while exploiting its geopolitical status in fighting the red brigade.
While the revised trade treaty is meant for boosting Nepalese economy in answer to the entreaties from Prime Minister Nepal, that stability will not be possible without a growing economy, the consistent support for a democratic constitution is a support for a democratic political system in Nepal. The efforts related to it of course go back to the 12 point deal, which go a long way in containing growing Maoist extremism in Nepal
This brings us around to what transpired in New Delhi while Prime Minister Nepal was there with the above narration serving as a backdrop. What transpired and what is likely to transpire ahead is something which is good for Nepal as long as there is consensus among parties before the nation can wangle a democratic constitution.
That is because the entire world, including, of course, the Indian side, is now waiting with bated breath as to what kind of a constitution Nepal comes up with by also ensuring that the UCPN-Maoist does not stray out of the entire process of drafting and promulgating the constitution.
The reason being any aberration in the constitution drafting and promulgating process is highly
likely to set in political instability in Nepal and Left extremism which could
even lead to enhanced Chinese role and much more. This suffices when talking about the early need to have a constitution in place as far as the concerns of the international community are concerned.
The Indian side is equally keen to see that the Nepalese soil is not used to foment or foster anti-Indian activities, a reason why the Indian side has been insisting on revising the Extradition Treaty, 1953 signed
between the two countries so that it can better fight
its rivals in the region
which of course are Pakistan and China by spreading a net and netting those involved effectively.
All this, however, does not mean that India can be expected to back Prime Minister Nepal or any other incumbent whatsoever for a long time to come. That is because as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has very well said that Prime Minister Nepal will have
to take Nepali Congress (NC) leader Girija Prasad Koirala along with him, while also appeasing the Maoists and containing them the way he can best do it. Whatever that means, consensus is still the key and also a trap for any incumbent prime minister given the fractured nature of the electoral mandate in the constituent assembly.
To conclude, it is easy to see from here that the Indian side is very much keen to uphold its and western interest which of course are a democratic constitution and political system and weak Left brigade so that the international community can maintain a steady eye on China while India gets the feel of a regional power going for global role.