Nepal has been undergoing tremendous ups and downs in recent years. The Maoists, who had taken up arms against the state in early 1996, were brought under the peace process with the Indian facilitations of getting the 12-point understanding

The announcement made by PM KP Sharma Oli to visit China within one month, before the commencement of his visit to India, has been actualized by his seven-day official visit from March 20 to 27, 2016. The success of his visit is highlighted, as ten agreements including some Memoranda of Understanding have been signed and a 15-point joint statement has been released. Significantly, the signing of the transit treaty and further negotiation for importing fuel from China are the achievements of his visit, whereas there is hardly any immediate relief from the dependence on India for fuel supplies despite our needs and wishes. In contrast, we may have to suffer more on account of our psyche to get emancipation from Indian bondage at the earliest. Against his earlier visit to India with an objective to eliminate the atmosphere of distrust between two countries, the purpose of his visit to China seemed specific as there were much expectations in view of about hundred forty days undeclared blocked by India, forcing it to open another channel of supply of fuel. Though, the transit agreement is a milestone in the relations between the two countries, its viability and effectiveness are to be tested in the days to come.

It was commonly expected that there would be a significant change in Indian policy towards Nepal after PM Modi assumed his charge, as he had been a successful Chief Minister of Gujarat, but his success as the Prime Minster of India was yet to be proved. Before taking his oath of office as prime Minster, perhaps he could not distinguish between domestic politics and diplomacy, as he invited all the heads of state/government of SAARC countries at his swearing-in ceremony holding the occasion as the biggest day in his life, which was not really so in the life of the Indian nation. It was simply a change of government. Fortunately, all SAARC leaders made their visits showing their magnanimity. Many Indians hailed his decision as great diplomacy; but many outside India considered it a wrong start, as it was not practical to make it a convention to attend the swearing-in ceremonyin each country by all of them. The invitation showed a different kind of mindset. The graceful

presence of all SAARC leaders seemed to embolden his morale to deal with all his counter parts in theregion differently.

PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Nepal after becoming prime Minster of India in August 2014 was also really a pilgrimage to Lord Pashupatinath, which was turned into an official visit enabling  him to address the Constituent Assembly members. It provided him an opportunity to assure them of his frequent visit to Nepal, and he came to Kathmandu in November, 2014 to attend the last SAARC summit but failed to keep his words by not attending the International Conference on Reconstruction held on June 25 2015.

Nepal has been undergoing tremendous ups and downs in recent years. The Maoists, who had taken up arms against the state in early 1996, were brought under the peace process with the Indian facilitations of getting the 12-point Understanding signed by the Maoists and the Seven-Party Alliance in November 2005. After the failure of    CA-1, elected in 2008, the CA-2 was elected in 2013 to finish the incomplete task of writing the constitution, which could not include many provisions like one Madhes pradesh and proportional representations, etc., which were incorporated in the Interim Constitution, 2007 by the Madhes movement costing the precious lives of about fifty people.

The first draft of the new constitution proved to be a red rag to the bull and Madhesi outfits started protest on August 17 with a call to have total strike in Madhes region.  The first protestor was killed on August 19 and the security agencies kept on shooting protesters indiscriminately by hitting them on their heads and chests, killing more than fifty-five people. The protesters  blocked the main line of supply of materials to Nepal by staging sit-in protest on the Dashgaja (the ten-yard no man’s land) between Raxaul and Birgunj and many other points too at the border. However, some of them were withdrawn later. India, however, failed in its diplomacy, as it could not resume supply of fuel in those checkpoints at least where there was hardly any obstructions or none at all.

It was generally believed that under the pretext of Madhesi obstructions the Modi government had restricted the supplies of goods including fuel to Nepal for five reasons. First, Nepal did not heed the advice of PM Modi, which he had given to the CA members to frame a constitution acceptable to all. Secondly, the government did not defer the adoption of the new constitution to consider the demands of the disgruntled groups as suggested by the foreign secretary of India, who visited Kathmandu at the eleventh hour, which was termed a wrong political decision, ill-timed and ill-advised by many. Thirdly, it helped directly the cause of Madhesi rights, which was never its concern. Only in recent years, it has started giving due recognition to the Madhes. Lastly, it was inferred that there were some indirect Indian concerns like not declaring Nepal a Hindu state, not addressing its security perceptions and its interests in water resources. Now, it is to be seen with keen interest whether Nepal will be serious about Indian interests or pursue the alternative it has chosen recently.