The Indian visit was going to be a double-edged sword for the Nepali Congress because the coalition partners will also hold Deuba responsible for any stumble during the visit. But they will not hesitate to share the dividend arising out of the successful trip. The dual character of the coalition partners was well exposed during the MCC episode
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has returned home after paying a three-day goodwill visit at the invitation of the Government of India. Prime Minister Deuba met the chief of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Jagat Prakash Nadda, on the day of his arrival in Delhi on Friday. He then offered respect to Mahatma Gandhi, the father of the Indian nation, in Rajghat Saturday morning. In the afternoon, Deuba had a meeting with his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, culminating in a press conference. He returned home on a late afternoon flight from the holy city of Benaras on Sunday.
His illustrious predecessors, B P Koirala, Krishan Prasad Bhattarai, Girija Prasad Koirala and Sushil Koirala had also cruised to India during their term in office in response to the tradition of visiting India soon after the assumption of office. But there is a sea difference between these visits. Whilst China was like a passive political volcano or even dormant particularly during the time of BP Koirala, it has now become more than active. Geological volcanoes are confined to the locality of their explosion, but this political volcano has sent its lava around the globe, warming up its relationship with several countries.
The neighbouring areas, however, feel the heat during such an explosion, which Nepal has experienced in recent years. One recent example is the concern shown by China with regards to the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) and the inclusion of Nepal in the loop of the Afghanistan, Pakistan and India visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister and State Counsellor Wang Yi just a week before the visit of Prime Minister Deuba to India. So, Deuba has to maintain equidistance and walk a tight rope during his visit without seeming to be aligned to either side.
Earlier, the retention of equidistance could be expressed in words because of China's nonchalance on India-Nepali relations due to the mighty Himalayas that segregate China and Nepal in stark contrast to the porous border between India and Nepal. But now it has to be matched with deeds due to the ever increasing rivalry between India and China.
The visits to India are generally fraught with political backlash. The visit of Girija Prasad Koirala invited intense criticism from the opposition party, the UML, for the initiation made on the Mahakali Treaty. This year also the UML must have wished for fumbles on the part of Deuba in order to cash in on the eve of the local election due to its likely under-performance this time. Because it is aware that the Nepali Congress folded to second position in the election that followed after it had dissolved the parliament.
Furthermore, the UML had lost the election of 1999 when there was a division in the party headed by Bam Dev Gautam. This historic reality has certainly shaken the UML from inside even if it makes high decibel claims of registering a victory in the forth-coming elections.
The Indian visit was going to be a double-edged sword for the Nepali Congress because the coalition partners also will hold Deuba responsible for any stumble during the visit.
But they will not hesitate to share the dividend arising out of the successful trip to India. The dual character of the coalition partners has already been exposed during the MCC episode.
There are several irritants in India-Nepal relations, but the border dispute between the two is the most towering one due to reportedly 71 encroachments made by India along the border. This has been aggravated after the publication of the map by Nepal incorporating the areas around Limpiyadhura. Premier Deuba raised this issue, which the Indian Ministry of External Affairs acknowledged duly, holding that it should be addressed in a responsible manner given the unparalleled relation existing between the two countries. It has in a way put an end to the conventional loud mouth of the UML.
The inauguration of the Jayanagar-Kurtha railway was like a cherry on the cake of the Indian visit.
Other subjects like the exchange of Memorandum of Understanding made in four areas, including the agreement reached to expedite the Pancheshwar Hydropower Project are those irritatingly familiar entities, which are regularly raised during the visit but put on the back burner immediately afterwards.
The increasing trade deficit with India is another concern which did not figure in the press conference.
India has been kind to Sri Lanka at the time of its economic woes. Nepal is also on the verge of facing similar problems in the wake of ascending imports and equally descending remittances, when it will certainly need Indian support.
On the whole, this visit appears to be fairly successful.
Much was not expected in view of the election taking place in Nepal.
One can draw comfort from the fact that it went off well in a very cordial manner without the emergence of any unpleasant issues during the visit.
Deuba has reaped multiple political harvests this year. He has kept the coalition intact. Besides, he has registered a landslide victory in the party. The Prime Minister was successful in laying the MCC ghost to rest. He restored political balance by agreeing to expedite the Belt and Road Initiative during the visit of the Chinese foreign minister, which otherwise had appeared to move to the Chinese orbit during the Left regime. He killed two birds with one stone by agreeing for a local tie-up in the forthcoming elections, thereby silencing the Shekhar Koirala group in the party and also the coalition partners.
The Indian visit has added yet another feather in the cap of Prime Minister Deuba.
He appears to be transforming into a statesman in the twilight of his political career despite several initial flaws. His political journey will reach its pinnacle if he can lead his party to victory in the forthcoming elections.
A version of this article appears in the print on April 5, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.