Electoral literacy in Nepal is very bleak. Hence, last moment public manipulation of the political actors is going to influence the overall outcome of the upcoming election
The upcoming election set on the spirit of the violent Gen-Z movement is less than one month away. The political parties and their candidates have reverted to their voters with their agenda and are convincing the people to vote in their favour. Elections have always been a big fanfare in Nepal as the political parties get endorsed by the people to rule the country for the next five years. However, not all the parliamentary terms were completed. There are instances of premature termination of parliamentary terms, resulting in mid-term elections. The upcoming election is one such instance that is going to be held more than two years before the regular periodic election.
The Gen-Z movement forced the incumbent prime minister, his council of ministers, and a few leaders of the established parties to flee and briefly go into hiding. This catapulted national flag-clad prominent, less-known, and unknown individuals from the society, who were supportive of the Gen-Z movement, to the statutory power. In addition, the alternative-claiming political outfit, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), also vehemently supported the movement.
Amid the heat of the agitation on September 9, RSP Chairman Rabi Lamichhane broke free from prison aspiring to claim the largest stake of the Gen-Z movement. However, the tables turned the other way, and Lamichhane was bound to return to prison after a few days. Notably, the inclination of the sitting PM, Attorney General, and some of the ministers towards the RSP and Rabi Lamichhane clearly hints towards indirect involvement of the RSP in fueling the flame of the Gen-Z movement. This interpretation is further supported by the RSP's official declaration aligning itself with the spirit of the Gen-Z movement during its unification with the political team of former Kathmandu Metropolitan Mayor Balendra Shah.
The current government was formed extra-constitutionally through a soft coup d'état, and the subsequent dissolution of the House of Representatives (HoR) was also unconstitutional. The supporters of the current political developments justify all these incidents as a doctrine of necessity. However, it has to be noted that a violent agitation might topple a regime and revise or redraft the constitution, it cannot just change a government. Hence, the Gen-Z movement should have pursued constitutional amendments in its favour prior to forming a government and announcing the mid-term elections. Instead, it established a perilous precedent whereby a government may be forcibly overthrown rather than replaced through constitutional means.
It is disheartening to witness the Supreme Court's reluctance in entertaining the writ petitions demanding a judicial clarification on the legality of the present government and dissolution of the HoR. It appears that the Supreme Court (SC) has delayed its verdict amid concerns over potential hostile reactions from Gen-Z supporters, particularly given that a definitive ruling would entail the reinstatement of the HoR. With time running out and the election date approaching, the SC verdict on the legality on these issues will likely be delivered after the election. On a personal level, judges are, after all, human actors, and the psychological impact of the arson attack on the SC building may continue to affect them. This episode appears to illustrate a troubling instance in which mob pressure overshadows established legal procedures, setting a perplexing precedent for the future.
Amid all these complications, the intensity of the electoral contest continues to escalate. The contestants have embarked on their public-pleasing missions in their respective constituencies with all sort of promises and commitments. Aspiring contestants from all walks of life are seen aligning with one or the other political parties irrespective of their principles and objectives. Mayors of certain metropolitan cities and some municipalities as well as members of provincial assemblies have resigned midway to contest for the federal HoR. Over that, scores of journalists, lawyers, actors, social activists, content creators, players, and people enjoying state facilities have abruptly jumped into politics. The emergence and proliferation of alternative-claiming political formations – particularly newer parties such as the RSP, Ujyalo Nepal, and the Shram Sanskriti Party – have enabled the political ambitions of careerist and populist individuals to materialise.
With the political arena increasingly crowded by an almost equal presence of genuine, unblemished, and non-corrupt politicians and careerist or populist actors, responsibility ultimately rests with the electorate to distinguish the former from the latter. Failing this, the forthcoming HoR risks becoming an abode of political pantomime. Electoral literacy in Nepal is very bleak. Hence, last moment public manipulation of the political actors is going to influence the overall outcome of the upcoming election.
Shocking footage of candidates, particularly in rural constituencies, has increasingly surfaced online, showing them enticing voters with promises of foreign employment opportunities, pretentiously immersing themselves into people's daily routines, and exploiting sensitive issues to garner public support. The Election Commission and other election monitoring agencies should take these issues seriously and should penalise the candidates violating the election code of conduct.
The current political development is discouraging, as many pre-election activities have devolved into grandiose rock-style spectacles or, conversely, into hollow pantomime. Political parties and their candidates appear to prioritise performative appeal over substantive engagement, often to their own advantage. Yet this condition may prove temporary. As Abraham Lincoln famously mentioned, you can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. One may therefore hope that merit ultimately prevails and that deserving candidates succeed.
Dr Joshi is a senior scientist and independent opinion maker based in Germany,
pushpa.joshi@gmail.com