The current political events appear to be heading for their customary decadal turbulent trajectory. This is the impression the capital seems to have obtained after it witnessed the presence of reportedly 15,000 people seeking the abrogation of the existing Federal Republican constitution of Nepal and the restoration of the presumably Constitutional Monarchy. They had come to welcome former King Gyanendra at the airport on his way back from Pokhara last fortnight. For this, a peep back into the recent political past is necessary.
Nepal achieved independence from 104 years of Rana oligarchical tyranny in 1950 through a People's Revolution led by the Nepali Congress (NC), ushering in the age of democracy in Nepal. For this, King Tribhuvan and Crown Prince Mahendra had to flee to neighbouring India, opening the window for baby Gyanendra to be the king till their return after signing the Delhi agreement. But in 1961, the nascent democracy was strangled with unprecedented cruelty by King Mahendra, who banned the political parties and revived the constitutional monarchy to an absolute one. It established a strange political outfit called the partyless Panchayat Democracy.
The NC in turn remained in exile and organised several covert and overt activities. It culminated into an armed struggle in 1972 from Haripur in the south, which, however, was a fiasco. Despite the failure of people-led resistance, its force was felt throughout the country. Consequently, the newly crowned King Birendra created a constitution reform committee. This can be taken as the second decadal milder turbulence in Nepali politics following the more severe one in 1961.
The third turbulence again raised its customary head in 1979 when a student-led agitation to protest the hanging of Pakistani President Bhutto was dealt rather forcibly. B P Koirala had returned from India seeking national reconciliation, but again he was put in prison. It also added fuel to the underground smoldering political fire. The events snowballed so rapidly that King Birendra had to announce a referendum to choose between a reformed Panchayat system and multiparty system of governance. The multi-party supporters got 10 per cent less votes amidst allegations of poll rigging.
The King promulgated a new constitution, but people saw little signs of reform. Consequently, in 1990, as a fourth turbulence, it gave birth to a confrontational People's Movement, which restored multi-party Democracy and the Constitutional Monarchy in Nepal.
The following national poll gave the majority to the NC with the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) as the opposition. The two splinters of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), both supporters of the absolute Monarchy, however, ended up with a dismal performance.
Unfortunately, this period was marred firstly by fierce opposition between the top political parties, the NC and UML, and secondly by the political infighting between the top leaders such as Ganesh Man Singh and Girija Prasad Koirala of the NC. This squabble led to the dissolution of the majority-elected government and the holding of the mid-term election.
The mid-term poll gave a mixed verdict, with no majority to any political party. Coalitions based on interest rather than principles were formed. It produced disenchantment, breeding political dissatisfaction, eventually giving rise to the People's War. It was led by the Maoists which caused the demise of 17,000 people.
This period produced division between the political forces. The parliamentarians, especially the NC, were targeted by the rebels. A royal massacre followed, and the people were depressed to hear the demise of their beloved King Birendra with several of his family members perishing overnight. People were highly frustrated after an investigation committee confirmed that the mass murderer was none other than the drunk Crown Prince Dipendra.
In such a cataclysmic event, Gyanendra became the King for the second time. People had been tired of the political parties and expected political solace from the new King. He even made a few expected gestures in the beginning. But later he started committing a litany of blunders. Instead of working amicably with the political parties as per the constitution, he dreamt of reviving the obsolete absolute monarchy in the country by putting the multi-party leaders behind bars.
Breaking the tradition of talking to India first, he turned to rival Pakistan. It put India, the multi-party and Maoist politicians on a different page from the King. As a fifth turbulence, they entered into a 12-point agreement in India to hold elections for a constitutional assembly and decide the fate of the Monarchy – something like the neo-Delhi Agreement. The elected constituent assembly announced a Federal Republican Nepal.
The republicans, however, started being alleged for engagement in their own economic upliftment, little caring for the problems like the flight of youths to foreign countries, the sagging economy barely breathing that too thanks to the remittance obtained from outside. It is at this juncture that the people have become restless for a change.
A fleeting glance at the aforementioned penta-decadal turbulences shows that the paradigmatic shift in the polity took place through confrontation rather than consultation. But the country cannot afford confrontations at any cost.
So, all the parties should submit to dialogue instead of defiance. One of them has been cited as the holding of a round-table conference, but it has not been practised unlike the holding of a referendum. For this, the formation of an all-party government with new credible faces and mandate of holding the referendum on the restoration of the Hindu nation and the Constitutional Monarchy along with the local election can be made. It will also be within the ambit of the existing constitution.