Through better connectivity with China, Nepal can benefit by being a hub for the neighbouring Asian giants to develop trading activities
Prime Minister K P Oli launched a four-day official visit to China on Monday upon the invitation of Prime Minister Li Qiang, leading a jumbo team of 78 persons. Debates are underway regarding the probable success or failure of this visit. Will it be like some of the visits in the past which are barely remembered? It might as well be that his successful visit will eclipse the remarkable visits to China by his illustrious predecessors like B P Koirala in particular. The political arena is naturally resonating with such discourses underway among political observers both in the country and outside.
This visit has made a departure from the well-established tradition of first making a visit to India after a Prime Minister comes to power in Nepal. Unfortunately, it happened so as Oli did not receive an invitation from India even after the tour of the Minister for Foreign Affairs Arzoo Deuba especially for this purpose. Oli's meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly also did not bear any fruit.
There are several factors responsible for this state of affairs. But the main one is the turbulence seen in Nepal-India friendship in the last decade, mostly with Oli as the prime minister. Firstly, India did not like the Federal Constitution of Nepal to the extent that it had sent then foreign secretary and now the Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar to postpone its promulgation. But Nepal did not pay heed as it was a now or never kind of situation. What followed is an allegedly India-backed border blockade by the tarai-based political parties after they opposed the constitution.
Nepal successfully defied the blockade, which exponentially increased the popularity of Oli. Realising that it was risky to put all eggs in one basket by remaining entirely dependent on India, Oli signed several agreements with China in 2016 and later in 2018, which irked India. The signing of the agreements related to the Belt and Road Policy, a brain child of Chinese President Xi to create a global Chinese network, has been yet another irritant in Nepal-India relations.
When Oli formed a two-thirds majority coalition government with the Maoist Centre, riding on the crest of the successful faceoff with India, the border incursion of Lipu Lake and Limpiyadhura came to the fore, which was lying dormant till then. It became more prominent after India built a road passing though the disputed territory. When Nepal's diplomatic efforts to resolve the problem through dialogue virtually fell on the deaf ears of the Indian government, it prepared a new pointed map showing the disputed territory on Nepal's map. It was supported by all the political parties and parliamentary members of Nepal apart from a solitary Sarita Giri of the Samajbadi Party who was later sacked for party indiscipline.
The outspoken character of Oli has also contributed towards the present unease in Indo-Nepal relations. One of them is his recent assertion that Ayodhya was in Thori, Nepal. But travellers like China's Fa Hein and later Guru Nanak visited Ayodhya of India. That Fa Hein came to Lumbini, the birthplace of the Buddha, suggests that he would have come to Thori and so would have Nanak had it been the case.
The Belt and Road policy has, however, been one of the thorny problems in Nepal- China relation. China wishes to implement the projects more on Chinese loans and less on grants. One of the coalition partners of the Oli-headed government, the Nepali Congress, is worried that it may fall into a debt trap like Sri Lanka and is thus in favour of grants more than loans.
Nepal and China share a cordial relationship since time immemorial. It begins with the visit of several Chinese travellers to Nepal during the Licchavi period. The Bandung Conference held in 1955 forms another milestone in Sino-Nepal relations with Premier Zhou En Li proposing that relations be based on the famous Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. On Premier Zhou's invitation, Prime Minister Tanka Prasad Acharya of Nepal made the first official visit to China in 1956. Premier Zhou visited paid a return visit to Nepal in 1957, paving the way for bettering India-China relations.
Nepal's first elected and charismatic Prime Minister B. P. Koirala visited China in 1960. Prime Minister Kriti Nidhi Bista popped in during the Panchayat democracy in Nepal. It was followed by the arrival of China's pragmatic leader Deng Xiaoping in 1978, Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang in 1981, President Li Xiannian in 1984, Premier Li Peng in 1984 and President Xi Jinping in 2019 to Nepal. In the following years, Girija Prasad Koirala and Mana Mohan Adhikari also departed for China. Likewise, Prime Ministers K P Oli and Prachanda, and Nepal's President Vidya Bhandari also followed suit.
Apart from BP Koirala and Bista's visits, the other visits have however left much to be desired. Whilst Koirala solved the long-standing border problems, Bista was instrumental in removing the Indian check posts that were stationed along the Sino-Nepali border. Oli has the opportunity to rub shoulders with them if he can develop the much-needed connectivity between China and Nepal. Nepal can benefit by being a hub for the neighbouring Asian giants, China and India, to develop trading activities.
For this he should be able to enter into agreements with China for executing the connectivity projects consisting of roads and train tracks which have already been identified. And these projects should be on grant basis as Nepal's loans have already mounted to 40 per cent of its GDP. It is obvious that it cannot take any further loans. This visit thus stands as an acid test of Oli. If he is successful, his critics for his failure to honour the tradition of visiting India first also will be silenced greatly.
