An alleged plot to kill Thailand’s caretaker PM Thaksin Shinawatra has set the tone for a bitter exchange between pro and anti-government groups as campaigning officially began, last Thursday, for general elections scheduled for October 15. The discovery of bomb-making material in the boot of a car close to Thaksin’s residence came days after bloody scuffles between the premier’s critics and his sympathisers in Bangkok.

“This attempted violence is unprecedented during general election campaigns,” Gen. Saiyud Kerdphol, a former Thai military supreme commander, who currently heads an independent election monitoring group, said. Other analysts expect more outbursts, including charges and counter-charges of violence, because of the depth of anger that has spread across a sharply divided national constituency. “This time the political stakes are the highest ever, with Thaksin’s life now in question,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University said.

Thaksin elaborated on who the alleged perpetrators could be. “There are three to four military officers involved in the assassination plot. Some of them are retired,” the AFP quoted Thaksin as having said. This revelation comes on the heels of a new group being formed this week by university lecturers, activists, businessmen and students to raise the tempo against the PM.

For most of this year, however, the anti-Thaksin drive has been spearheaded by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD). Its arrival on the scene in February put Thaksin, who had governed the country since the beginning of 2001, under intense political pressure. That was achieved through endless street campaigns and public demonstrations. But with Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party still in power, and the second parliamentary polls for this year due in October, the PAD has decided to trade the virtues of mass demonstrations for a more confrontational approach. “The PAD has changed its strategy from organising mass rallies to using small groups of members to shout and curse Thaksin when he appears in public,’’ reports The Nation newspaper. “With this new ‘attacking’ style, the PAD has made the deliberate decision to create the impression that confrontation is unavoidable,” it adds. “Fears have arisen that the growing tension between Thaksin loyalists and their rivals could spread nationwide during campaigning, resulting in uncontrollable violence.”

The rural support base of TRT has been built on the pro-poor initiatives. They include a debt moratorium for rural farmers, new financial schemes to develop the grassroots economy and a cheap universal healthcare package. “Thaksin’s opponents are getting increasingly desperate and frustrated that he has stayed on and they are afraid that he will win over 300 seats in the 500-member parliament again,” says Nelson. “If that happens, it will be more difficult for his opponents to tell the people that elections are bad and Thaksin has to go.” — IPS