KATHMANDU, MARCH 1
In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, as massive shutdowns began, some observers predicted that the risk of job loss depended on factors such as an occupation's amenability to working remotely, or contractions in aggregate demand and downturns in contact-intensive sectors like restaurants and travel.
As the crisis has worn on, however, some less anticipated drivers of job losses have been revealed. First, whereas declining labor supply is a big story in rich economies, a new Jobs Group study shows that shocks to labor demand have been the predominant source of job losses in the middle-income economies of Georgia and Jordan.
The primary causes of declines in labor demand are also becoming clearer. As anticipated, infection risk to customers has played a role, as have COVID-related closures and falling export demand. Supply chain disruptions are also among the most significant determinants of job losses. Georgia and Jordan show that firms are more able to rearrange their supply chains did better during the crisis.
A version of this article appears in the print on March 2, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
