Nepal | July 02, 2020

Coronavirus outbreak could shave off Nepal’s economy by $36.78 million

Sujan Dhungana
Share Now:
  • 15,880 jobs could be lost depending on how the virus evolves

Kathmandu, March 6

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will hit almost every sector of the Nepali economy, shaving up to 0.13 per cent off the gross domestic product and rendering up to 15,880 people jobless, as per an analysis by the Asian Development Bank.

The Manila-based multilateral lender has explored a range of scenarios on the economic impact of COVID-19 as the outbreak is still evolving, making it difficult to make rational predictions.

If the outbreak’s impact is minimum on Nepali economy, the country’s GDP will shrink by 0.04 per cent or $12.12 million, considering the size of Nepal’s economy as of 2018 at $29 billion. Similarly, Nepal’s GDP will shrink by 0.06 per cent or $18.35 million if the impact of the outbreak is moderate, as per ADB. However, ADB has stated that the COVID-19, in the worst case, could shave off up to 0.13 per cent or $36.78 million from the country’s economy.

“However, the magnitude of the economic impact will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain. The COVID-19 outbreak affect’s Asian economies through numerous channels, including sharp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects,” as per ADB.

ADB has stated that the COVID-19 will affect an array of sectors, including hotels and restaurants, manufacturing, construction, transport, trade and business, among others, in Nepal and the Asian region.

ADB forecasts that the virus will primarily affect the hotel and restaurant sector in Nepal. ADB has analysed that the COVID-19 can shrink Nepal’s hotel and restaurant sector by 0.03 per cent or $8 million to 0.08 per cent or $24.07 million, depending on how the outbreak evolves.

“Tourism arrivals and receipts in many developing Asian economies are expected to decline sharply as a result of numerous travel bans as well as precautionary behaviour,” states ADB.

With the coronavirus outbreak hitting almost every sector in Nepal, it can lead to cut down of 5,210 to 15,880 jobs in the country, depending on how the epidemic develops.

Meanwhile, the range of scenarios explored by ADB suggests a global impact of $77 billion to $347 billion or 0.1 per cent to 0.4 per cent of global GDP, with a moderate case estimate of $156 billion or 0.2 per cent of the global economy.

“There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact. This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada.


A version of this article appears in print on March 07, 2020 of The Himalayan Times.

Follow The Himalayan Times on Twitter and Facebook

Recommended Stories:

More from The Himalayan Times:

In Pictures: Tourism workers raise their voice

Kathmandu, July 01 Members of Paryatan Majdoor Sangharsha Samiti (Tourism Labour Struggle Committee) voice their concerns for tourism-related employment, in the wake of coronavirus ciris hitting the tourism industry hard, in Bhrikutimandap, Kathmandu, on Wednesday, July 01, 2020. Read More...

Young adults receive health materials in Bajura's rural municipality

BAJURA: As many as 280 girls and boys have received health and safety materials in Khaptad Chhededaha Rural Municipality of Bajura district. The materials were provided by Mahila Bikas Manch (Women Development Forum) in coordination with the local level. Krishnaa Dani, Programme Coordinator of Read More...

Mastermind behind explosion at ex-minister Baskota's house arrested

BHAKTAPUR: A man suspected to be the main conspirator behind the bomb blast carried out at the under-construction house belonging to former Minister for Communications and Information Technology Gokul Prasad Baskota, has been arrested. An improvised explosive device (IED) went off at the house on Read More...

Nepal logs 30th coronavirus related death

KATHMANDU: The Ministry of Health and Population has recorded yet another coronavirus-related fatality on Wednesday taking the total death-toll in the country to 30. A 45-year-old male from Ramaroshan Rural Municipality-5 in Achham district of far-western Nepal tested positive for COVID-19 after Read More...

NC leader Gagan Thapa meets with youth activists staging Satyagraha

Kathmandu, July 1 Nepali Congress leader Gagan Thapa met with youth activist Iih, who along with other campaigners, has been staging Satyagraha for the last six days in Mangalbazaar, Patan, without drinking water or eating food, demanding accountability and effective handling of Coronavirus crisi Read More...

COVID-19 Update: 482 new cases, one death recorded on Wednesday

KATHMANDU: Nepal’s Health Ministry, in its regular press briefing, shared the latest updates on coronavirus contagion from across the country, and government’s response to the health crisis. As of today, 233,227 tests through Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) method and 300,620 Rapid Diagn Read More...

PM KP Sharma Oli visits Gangalal Heart Centre for routine check-up

KATHMANDU: Amid tensions escalating in ruling Nepali Communist Party (NCP), party co-chair and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli today visited Shahid Gangalal National Heart Centre to get himself checked. It has been learnt that PM Oli went to the hospital for regular health screening. According th Read More...

Absconding convict arrested after 22 years in Tanahun

TANAHUN: Police have arrested an absconding person involved in a road accident after 22 years of being convicted, on Tuesday. Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) Yuvaraj Timilsina of District Police Office, Tanahun, said that Laxman Shrestha, 50, of Shuklagandaki Municipality-3 was arrested fro Read More...