Renu Kshetry

Kathmandu, May 27

Preparations are underway to introduce the tenth five year plan in the new fiscal year beginning July 17, claimed the newly appointed boss at the National Planning Commission (NPC) on Monday, dismissing all rumours that the economic and political crisis could force the planning document to be deferred for at least a year.

“We are in the process of giving finishing touches to the tenth plan,” Narayan Khadka, vice chairman of the NPC, told The Himalayan Times. “We are updating the document in view of the dramatic political developments leading to fresh parliamentary elections. The tenth plan will definitely give top priority to the maintenance of security in the country.”

Some economists find it hard to digest the fact that the updated version of tenth plan is being launched beginning next fiscal year. “Since NPC have not been able to finalise the document on time and it is next to impossible to launch it just when elections have already been announced,” said Raghab Dhoj Pant, senior economist with Institute for Development Studies.

He said that the job should be best left for the government that would be elected following the November 13 parliamentary elections.

Although there are many who question whether elections would be held on time given the security situation, NPC has already prepared the final draft of the tenth plan. The plan aims at an economic growth rate of 6.2 per cent during 2002-07.

Prithivi Raj Legal, former NPC vice chairman, said that final draft has been prepared and the tenth five-year plan includes the development work. He did not rule out the possibility of a plan holiday next fiscal year in view of the current political situation.

“The uncertainty of the budget becomes the main cause of plan holiday,” he said. “The political turmoil will increase the budgetary burden by the election as well as the present situation of the country which is in needs of peace in the country.”

The final draft of the tenth plan, which was prepared early this year, also aims to reduce poverty levels to 30 per cent by the end of the plan period from the current 38 per cent.

The document has been prepared on the basis of the economic growth achieved in the last four years. But economic growth has sharply declined in the last ten months.

The country’s economic growth has declined to two per cent, against the target of the Ninth Five Year Plan (1997-2002) to achieve a six per cent growth rate.

Poverty alleviation has always been the main thrusts of the plan main since eight five-year plan, together with balanced regional development and equitable social development.

The plan has identified backup areas for poverty alleviation such as agriculture, tourism, information technology, social development, social security, human development and local governance. But with the possibility of plan holiday none of the above programmes will see the light of the day.

“I think it is better to postpone tenth five year plan as this year the country is going through a very critical phase,” Pushkar Bajracharya, an economist with the Centre for Economic Development and Administration at Tribhuvan University.

“It is predicted that compared to expenditure, the revenue will be in the deficit of about 7-8 billion. In view of the worsening economic situation, the government should concentrate on preventing the situation from getting worse than at present,” he said.

The country’s economic plans have already experienced two plan holidays in 1962-63 and 1996-1997 due to political disturbances.