The Central Bureau of Statistics has projected the country's economic growth to be 5.84 per cent at consumer price in the current fiscal year based on the available economic data.

The CBS projection unveiled today in its preliminary report is 1.16 percentage points lower than the government's targeted growth rate of seven per cent. However, it is still higher than the growth projection for the current fiscal year made by the Asian Development Bank (3.9 per cent) and the World Bank (3.7 per cent). The International Monetary Fund had projected Nepal's economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2022.

The annual growth rate of GDP at basic price is projected at 5.49 per cent, according to the bureau. The growth estimate for the last fiscal year was revised to 3.8 per cent last year after it contracted 2.42 per cent in 2019-20 due to the COV- ID pandemic.

According to CBS, economic activities in Nepal are expected to be normal for the rest of this fiscal due to the waning effects of the COVID pandemic.

"Much of the population has become accustomed to the 'new normal' following the COVID pandemic, and we have only had limited impact due to the Russian-Ukraine war," said Director General of CBS, Nebin Lal Shrestha. "Thus, the economic outlook for the country is largely positive."

In the fiscal 2016-17, Nepal had recorded an alltime high economic growth of 8.6 per cent. The growth came in at 7.4 per cent in 2017-18 and 6.4 per cent in 2018-19.

Furthermore, the contribution of the primary sector to GDP is projected to decrease while that of the secondary and tertiary sectors is expected to increase.

The growth rate of the private sector is estimated to slip to 2.44 per cent from 2.95 per cent.

The contribution of the primary sector to the GDP is estimated at 24.5 per cent, while the contribution of the secondary sector is projected at 13.7 per cent.

The tertiary sector is expected to contribute 61.8 per cent to the GDP.

It is estimated that the agriculture sector's contribution will stand at 23.95 per cent and non-agriculture sector will contribute 76.05 per cent to the GDP in the current fiscal year. The GVA (gross value added) of the agricultural and forestry sector is projected to increase by 2.3 per cent in the current fiscal year.

The contribution of the mining and quarrying sector to the GDP is estimated at 0.5 per cent, that of manufacturing at 5.65 per cent, electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply at 1.37 per cent, water supply at 0.51 per cent, construction at 6.17 per cent, wholesale and retail trade sector at 16.40 per cent, transportation sector at 5.98 per cent, accommodation and food service activities at 1.65 per cent, information and communication at 2.09 per cent, financial intermediations at 6.86 per cent, real estate activities at 8.79 per cent, professional, scientific, and technical activities at 0.99 per cent, administrative and support service activities at 0.75 per cent, public administration and defence 7.73 per cent, education at 8.1 per cent, human health and social work activities at 1.79 per cent, and other economic activities at 0.61 per cent.

A version of this article appears in the print on April 29, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.