ICIMOD says extreme rainfall unlikely to be the cause
KATHMANDU, JULY 8
At least 20 people have been reported missing following a devastating flash flood that entered Nepal from the Rasuwagadhi border point early Tuesday morning. The missing include three Nepal Police personnel, six Chinese nationals, and 11 Nepali citizens. The flood, which struck around 3:00 AM, caused widespread destruction in Rasuwa and prompted authorities in neighboring Sindhupalchowk to issue urgent safety warnings.
According to the Rasuwa District Administration Office (DAO), critical infrastructure has been severely impacted. The Miteri Bridge, a key cross-border link between Nepal and China, was completely swept away. The Syafrubesi–Rasuwagadhi road section is now impassable, and the Rasuwa Customs Office, its dry port yard in Timure, an EV charging station, and the Rasuwagadhi Hydropower Project dam have all sustained various levels of damage. Around 35 electric vehicles, 23 container trucks, and six Sino trucks were swept away in the flood.
Rescue operations are underway, led jointly by security agencies, local authorities, and volunteers. As of the latest update, 55 individuals have been rescued, including 23 airlifted by a Nepali Army helicopter. The rescued include 50 Nepali citizens, one Chinese national, and four Indian nationals. A human remains, specifically, a male's right leg, were recovered from the riverbank in Ward No. 5 of Uttargaya Rural Municipality.
The worst-hit areas include Gosainkunda Rural Municipality (Wards 1–3), Aamachhodingmo Rural Municipality (Wards 1–4), Uttargaya Rural Municipality (Wards 1, 2, 4, and 5), and Kalika Rural Municipality (Ward 1). Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak, and the Minister for Energy, along with local officials, visited the affected area to assess the damage.
In light of continued rainfall in Tibet's Nyalam region, Chinese authorities alerted Nepal to the risk of further flooding. The Sindhupalchowk District Administration Office responded by advising residents living near the Bhotekoshi and Sunkoshi rivers to remain vigilant. Drivers have also been cautioned to be extra careful along the Araniko Highway, particularly between Bandeu and Liping.
Meanwhile, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has said that extreme rainfall is not likely the primary cause of the flood. "It is too early to definitively determine the exact cause of the flood event in Rasuwa, but we can confirm that extreme rainfall was not the cause," said Pradeep Man Dangol, Senior Hydrology Research Associate at ICIMOD.
Preliminary analysis using ICIMOD's High-Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit, satellite rainfall data, and multiple global weather models shows no significant rainfall in the upstream Chinese catchment before the flood. This suggests the flood was not triggered by heavy rain, Dangol added.
While a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) or a Landslide Lake Outburst Flood (LLOF) is suspected, ICIMOD said further investigation is required. One glacial lake in the upper Trishuli River basin, classified as high-risk, is under scrutiny. However, data from Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology does not indicate any temporary damming or sudden breach, as there was no sharp upstream water rise followed by a rapid release-often a tell-tale sign of such events.
"While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact trigger, what we do know is that global warming is increasing the frequency and complexity of mountain hazards," said ICIMOD Director General Pema Gyamtsho. Qianggong Zhang, Head of Climate and Environmental Risk at ICIMOD, emphasized that not all floods are straightforward results of rainfall, and warned that mountain response strategies must adapt to more complex disaster scenarios.
Authorities have urged the public to stay alert, follow official updates, and exercise extreme caution as rescue and relief operations continue in the affected regions.
