Data reveals that less than 5 per cent of startups become the next Facebook. This raises the question: should we rely solely on determinism or consider the role of probability in our strategies?
The pursuit of human knowledge is inherently retrospective. On a macro scale, our understanding of the universe begins with the Big Bang, the most credible theory of its origin. At the micro level, quantum physics dictates that we can only determine the outcome of an experiment after making measurements. Given that two of our most established and successful scientific theories highlight the retrospective nature of the universe, is it possible to formulate a strategy for future success?
In today's world, "strategy" is a term often misused and misunderstood, especially in the business world. Its incorrect application is widespread and not limited to management. Despite this, we want to explore the concept of strategy through the lens of a timeless myth: David versus Goliath. The underdog triumphing over the giant is a universally appealing narrative, but what psychological factors drive this fascination? What strategic lessons can we derive from this ancient tale that are relevant to today's world?
For the purpose of this article, we'll define strategy as a course of action designed to achieve a specific "winning" goal, whether short-term or long-term. Strategies typically involve identifying challenges, assessing opponents and leveraging strengths and weaknesses. This adversarial framework is evident in how the media often portrays conflicts: Harris vs. Trump, Apple vs. Google, Democrats vs. Republicans, China vs. the USA, and so on.
Returning to the David versus Goliath story, we can identify both strengths and weaknesses for each combatant. David, the young shepherd, demonstrated bravery in facing the formidable Goliath.
However, his inexperience in combat and small stature were clear disadvantages. Conversely, Goliath was renowned for his immense strength, combat experience and courage.
Logically, one might assume Goliath's overwhelming advantages would guarantee victory. Yet, the narrative unfolds differently. David's unconventional tactics, using a sling and a stone, exploited Goliath's overconfidence and vulnerability. In a single, decisive moment, David's agility and precision transformed him from underdog to victor.
This iconic tale continues to inspire those facing seemingly insurmountable challenges. However, a closer examination of the story reveals a strategic shift: David's perceived weaknesses vanished, replaced by newfound strengths, while Goliath's invincibility crumbled. The classic roles reversed-David became the Goliath, and Goliath became the David.
Considering the nature of such events, one might speculate that their origins lie in conditions preceding the Big Bang or the state of the universe after an experiment. This perspective, while speculative and potentially absurd to those who prioritise human free will, is prompted by the frequent occurrence of seemingly predetermined or probabilistic outcomes throughout history. These unexpected events challenge the conventional notion that strategy, as understood by the mainstream, alone shapes events.
For example, Kamala Harris, the vice president of the United States with a unique background as a Black and Indian-American, has made significant strides in pre-election polls against her formidable opponent, Donald Trump. A year ago, her approval rating as vice president was dismal. This unexpected surge in her popularity and poll numbers mirrors the classic David versus Goliath narrative.
Last month, Sheikh Hasina, a longstanding figure in Bangladesh's political leadership, was forced to flee the country due to widespread unrest led by students and civilians-individuals she likely underestimated as David, viewing them as a predictable opposition with known strengths and weaknesses.
Furthermore, OpenAI and ChatGPT were once the subjects of ridicule until they unexpectedly emerged as a serious threat to Google's three decades of dominance-the Goliath that no one saw coming.
David versus Goliath stories have been a constant in the business world as well. A prime example is Apple's resurgence from obscurity in the 2000s. Its revolutionary iPhone, termed the "Jesus phone", featured a touchscreen that completely disrupted the market and dethroned the Finnish giant, Nokia.
Countless examples of underdogs triumphing in sports, politics, entertainment and life could be cited. While we often attribute their success to sheer determination, the reality is that many superhuman efforts fall short. Data reveals that less than 5 per cent of startups become the next Facebook. This raises the question: should we rely solely on determinism or consider the role of probability in our strategies? Certainly not one or the other.
We suggest that the possibility of a David defeating Goliath exists at any moment, and being aware of this potential is essential. We can call this awareness determinism, probability, a "glitch in the matrix", divine intervention, or the ultimate strategy.
The writers are education management consultants at Islington College and founders of the brand voyageride.com
