The rapid population shift toward the plains from the hills will have political consequences in the long-term

The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) on Wednesday made public its preliminary report on the 12th National Census-2021, counting the country's total population of 29,192,480 with 14,901,169 females (51.04 per cent) and 14,291,311 males (48.96 per cent). The total population falls short of around 800,000 of the previously projected population. However, the total population of the country has increased by 10.8 per cent in 2021 from 2011.The CBS had conducted the national census from November 11 to 25 amidst the surge of coronavirus cases across the country. It also conducted the census in the Kalapani region using satellite images and estimated its total population to be at around 600. The CBS found that the annual average population growth rate during the period was 0.93 per cent, which is the lowest in the past 80 years and also lower than the annual average global population growth rate of 1.01 per cent. It also found that more than 2.1 million people were living in foreign countries either for work or study. There are a total of 6,761,059 households in the country, an increase of around 24.57 per cent compared to the last 2011 census. It means that on average 12 families live in 10 houses.

As per the population distribution by geographical region, 53.66 per cent of the people lived in the Tarai region in 2021 compared to 50.27 per cent in 2011, with Madhes Pradesh having the highest population with 20.99 per cent (6,126, 288) and Karnali Pradesh the lowest with 5.81 per cent (1,694,889).

District-wise, Kathmandu has the highest population whereas Manang has the lowest population.

In its preliminary results, the CBS attributed the slow growth rate to a large number of migration of Nepalis abroad for work, better lifestyle and studies. Access to a better education, health care system and awareness of the public about the importance of small family size have also contributed to slowing the population growth rate. With this, the able workforce could also rise to 67 per cent this time around from 64 per cent in 2011. Population experts say this is a 'population dividend' which will continue at least for the next 40 years to come.

The most worrying part of the 2021 national census is that the country's population has been gradually shifting toward the Tarai region, where life is comparatively better than in the hills and mountains.

Population in the Tarai region has increased to 53.66 per cent this time from 50.27 per cent 10 years ago. Population growth in the hills and mountains has decreased to 40.25 per cent from 43.01 per cent and 6.09 per cent from 6.73 per cent, respectively in the past decade. The rapid population shift toward the plains will have political consequences in the long-term as the constituencies will have to be readjusted every 20 years as per changes in the demography.

It means the Tarai region will have more say in national politics. To ease the population pressure on the plains, it is urgent for the state to have a strategy of retaining the population in the hills by expediting development works and creating more jobs in the regions, which occupy the largest area. At the same time, the state should also focus on controlling immigration from outside the country in Tarai.

Revenue loss

The Department of Mines and Geology faces charges of corruption for causing a revenue loss of a whopping Rs 1.24 billion to the state coffers. The Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) has filed a corruption case against employees of the department, including its Director General, for collecting only a token fine from nine companies that excavated more than the permitted amount of limestone, causing heavy revenue losses to the government.

The nine cement companies, while excavating more limestone than the permitted amount, have also been accused of adversely impacting the environment. It remains to be seen if the CIAA will be successful in winning the case in court and recouping the lost revenue from the alleged corrupt officers.

While everyone acknowledges the role of the private sector in taking the economy forward, they cannot be indulging in unscrupulous activities. The growing nexus between the private sector and corrupt officials is a matter of worry as this has institutionalised corruption in the country. If fraudulent practices are allowed to continue in the mines department, one can well imagine what will happen when minerals such as uranium are allowed to be mined.


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A version of this article appears in the print on January 28, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.