In which direction Nepal's politics will head will become clear only after the presidential poll
FEBRUARY 26
The five-party coalition, spearheaded by the CPN- UML, has come crashing down after senior leader of the Nepali Congress Ram Chandra Paudel, 78, filed his nomination on Saturday for the presidential race, backed by the CPN-Maoist Centre, which has a decisive number to elect the next head of the state.
Six other fringe parties have also supported Paudel's candidacy following an agreement that the vice-president will be elected from the Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party.
The UML has fielded former speaker Subas Chandra Nembang, 70, for the post of president without support from the other parties that were in the new coalition formed on December 25 last year when CPN-MC chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal was appointed the PM with the backing of as many as 169 lawmakers from five parties.
But this coalition crumbled like a house of cards within two months of its formation after Dahal ditched the UML-led coalition and sided with the Nepali Congress in the run up to the presidential election slated for March 9. It had become obvious that the newfound coalition would no longer continue after the NC, the largest party in the hung parliament, also extended its support to PM Dahal when he sought the vote of confidence on January 10.
The president and vice-president are elected through an electoral college comprising members of the federal parliament and provincial assemblies.
One has to obtain majority of the votes cast, out of the total 52,628 voting weightage. If everything goes as per the political understanding reached among the eight political parties, NC leader Paudel is sure to win the presidential race easily as he is likely to secure more than 31,000 votes, while Nembang will be pitting against Paudel with just a little over 15,000 votes as the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Rastriya Swatantra Party, both of which are close to the UML, have held their cards close to their chest. As per the political understanding among the eight parties, Dahal, NC boss Sher Bahadur Deuba and CPN-US leader Madhav Kumar Nepal will be leading the coalition government on a rotational basis.
In which direction Nepal's politics will be heading will become clear only after the presidential election.
The UML has decided not to quit the Dahal-led government till the presidential election, hoping to influence the national politics until the election date.
After the UML quits the government, it is naturally the NC which will join the Dahal-led government for the next few months. As nothing is impossible in politics due to the hung-parliament, the UML and others may encourage the NC to form another government under Article 76 (3) of the constitution as the largest party. Under this scenario, the NC may ditch Dahal halfway and decide to form its own government to be backed by the UML from outside by breaching the current political understanding.
Hence, there is every possibility that the Dahal-led government will not last for two years as has been promised by the coalition partners. Considering all these political scenarios, the country will not get political stability even after the November 20 poll. With the new political equation emerging at the centre in the run up to the presidential poll, the UML is sure to lose governments in three provinces it is leading.
A version of this article appears in the print on February 27, 2023, of The Himalayan Times.
