Irrational

North Korea’s preparation for the test firing of a long-range missile is characterised as an

utterly irrational, incomprehensible action.

Although a successful launch of an ICBM could increase tensions with Japan and the US, strengthen Japanese nationalists, alarm China, and could even provoke a nuclear arms race in northeast Asia, there is a rationale for North Korea’s resort to the threat of a missile launch. For more than a decade, it has been trying to strike a deal with US to have the Americans buy out its nuclear and missile programmes. Kim Il Sung and now Kim Jong Il have sought security guarantees and normalised relations with the US as well as energy supplies, food aid, trade and foreign investment. The key for North Korea has always been direct negotiations on a deal with US and has said it would be willing to give up its missile programme for the right price. North Korea’s logic is hardly impenetrable. Its leaders have reason to be fearful of the US, particularly since President Bush included their regime in his “axis of evil”.

North Korea’s goal is a deal that definitively puts an end to hostilities with US and compensates Pyongyang for surrendering its most lucrative export. If it does launch a missile in coming days, it will not be the only irrational party responsible for the ensuing crisis in Asia. — The Boston Globe