Moving forward, Nepal's political leadership should develop a comprehensive national strategy that enhances Kathmandu's diplomatic space and relevance in New Delhi
In international relations, doctrines guide a country's foreign policy and military strategy. Alongside global ambitions and economic priorities, New Delhi continues to confront the persistent threat of terrorism, while many South Asian nations adhere to a policy of Non-Alignment (NAP) and neutrality as perceived pillars of a 'just' foreign policy. The April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, highlighted the threat to regional stability and its broader diplomatic implications. Understanding this shift is essential for grasping the evolving geopolitical landscape of the 21st century.
Terrorism disrupts diplomacy, strains bilateral ties and heightens regional tensions. The response to the Pahalgam attack underscores the need for a multi-pronged strategy: international cooperation, regional consensus, improved intelligence sharing, addressing the Kashmir conflict's root causes, and adapting foreign policy to meet evolving threats.
The immediate trigger for the military conflict known as Operation Sindoor marked a turning point in military conflict between two nuclear-armed nations, featuring the first use of drones and precision-guided munitions. This reflects a global shift where drones are increasingly used for surveillance, sabotage and strikes, from Ukraine to the Red Sea.
India's evolving doctrine is driven by shifting security concerns, particularly persistent threats from Pakistan along the LoC, including cross-border terrorism and territorial disputes. In response, India has adopted a more assertive military posture, evident in the surgical strikes following attacks in Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019) and most recently Pahalgam (2024), signalling a move from passive deterrence to proactive security measures.
China's rise as a regional and global power has significantly impacted India's strategic outlook. Its assertiveness along the LAC in Ladakh, the McMahon Line in Arunachal Pradesh and through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has prompted India to recalibrate its diplomatic and security strategies.
Additionally, domestic political dynamics and a strong national security narrative shape India's evolving doctrine. Emphasis on sovereignty, military strength and regional influence drives more assertive policies aimed at power projection and deterrence.
India's doctrinal shift carries significant implications for South Asia's already fragile strategic stability. While it may enhance India's regional and global standing, it also risks escalating tensions with neighbours.
Impact on Pakistan-India relations: The doctrinal shift towards pre-emption and credible deterrence may deepen mistrust in Pakistan, reducing space for diplomacy and increasing the risk of recurring confrontations, especially over Kashmir.
China's response and regional power dynamics: India's military modernisation and closer ties with the US could prompt China to strengthen its border presence, disrupting the regional balance and intensifying strategic rivalry, thereby heightening geopolitical instability.
Increased regional tensions and arms race:A more assertive Indian military stance could trigger reciprocal measures from neighbouring states, particularly Pakistan and China. This includes a potential acceleration in the development and deployment of advanced military technologies, spanning conventional, nuclear, space and cyber domains. Such dynamics raise the risk of an arms race and threaten to destabilise the already delicate deterrence equilibrium that has, thus far, helped maintain a fragile peace in the region.
On the other hand, India's evolving strategic posture may lead smaller regional players like Bangladesh, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka to reconsider their foreign policy, balancing India's influence with the economic opportunities offered by Chinese investment, complicating South Asia's geopolitics.
While India's doctrinal shift could enhance security and regional integration, it also carries risks of escalation. The challenge for India is balancing its strategic ambitions with regional realities to ensure long-term stability without worsening tensions.
Recent weeks have seen swift strategic decisions and operational responses following India's doctrinal shift, reflected through various strategic frameworks and military policies. Three key developments stand out: A more proactive and assertive operational approach by the Indian armed forces; signals – whether rhetorical or practical – of Pakistan's willingness to disengage from supporting terrorist organisations; and the broader regional response to India's stance on terrorism. These developments could create a more favourable environment for diplomacy to take root and for dialogue to resume, laying the foundation for a more stable and cooperative South Asia.
For South Asian countries, including Nepal, the way forward is through collective efforts to combat terrorism, strengthening regional cooperation and peace-building. As India adjusts its strategic doctrines, it must focus not just on military strength, but also on ensuring regional stability and fostering partnerships for the benefit of all neighbors. Failing to do so could lead to a more volatile region.
Nepal, despite its domestic challenges, condemned the recent terrorist attack and expressed solidarity with India. It reaffirmed its commitment to peace, stating it would not allow hostile forces to use its soil against neighboring countries.
Moving forward, Nepal's political leadership should develop a comprehensive national strategy that enhances Kathmandu's diplomatic space and relevance in New Delhi. This strategy should include strengthening existing defence and cultural ties, such as the continuation and expansion of Gurkha recruitment; aligning strategically on infrastructure development, particularly cross-border connectivity and energy corridors; and promoting environmental diplomacy, especially in the shared management of water resources, energy security and climate adaptation initiatives.
Basnet, a Major General (Retd) of the Nepali Army, is a strategic analyst, and is associated with Rangsit University, Thailand
