A stumbling block for a poll alliance among the coalition partners is the mindset within the NC circle that it can win the election alone in most of the places. It is primarily because it had come a close second in many of the seats it lost last time, and there is a chance of victory this time

Nepal is geared towards holding the local election in almost three weeks from now. Party alliance has formed the spine of this election whether directly or indirectly. Accordingly, the coalition of parties that are in the government has gone for a direct party alliance guided by local necessity and circumstance.

The opposition party, the Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML), has taken an indirect route of party alliance by including the Kamal Thapa-led Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal and the Janata Dal, which have agreed to fight under the sun as the election symbol.

Realising that coalition is the only key to success, the coalition partners have now kept the door ajar for a coalition to be decided locally.

But the poll alliance appeared to have run into rough weather.

The local machinery consisting of the district presidents of the coalition parties have yet to send the modality of the alliance as requested by the Monitoring and Coordination Committee led by senior debonair leader Ram Chandra Paudel despite several time extensions.

But the finalisation of the Nepali Congress (NC)candidates in three metropolitan cities followed by one each for the Maoist Centre (MC), Unified Socialists (US) and Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) in the other three has now paved the way for similar arrangement in the other local governments.

This was possible due to the demonstration of the height of honesty by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who said that he was committed to the party alliance, describing himself very humbly as an offshoot of the coalition.

This is not the first time that he has adhered to political integrity. During the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) episode, he stood firm like a rock and did not budge an inch from his earlier stand. The flexibility shown by Prachanda about the possibility of any candidate other than the earlier mayor in Bharatpur Metropolitan City also has been helpful.

Coalition comes from the Latin word coalitio, which means joining or clubbing together. Coalition takes place between parties which have at least one common value. But the left coalition parties in the government do not seem to have even one as seen by their opposition to the MCC. This is understandable given the rightist and centrist ideology of the NC amidst the other members of the coalition, which share a leftist principle.

The left parties had the temerity to demonstrate in the streets spontaneously while heading the government.

Despite this, the coalition left parties are different when compared to the conventional communist parties, apart from the Jana Morcha-Nepal (JM) that temporarily withdrew from the coalition although it has again joined it.

For example, the coalition of communist parties of India, known as the Left Front led by Prakash Karat, withdrew from the coalition and forced the coalition partner, the Indian Congress headed by Manmohan Singh, to face a no-confidence motion in 2008 after they could not agree on the signing of the Indo-US Nuclear agreement.

But the left parties of Nepal agreed to pass the MCC at the end.

The theory of coalition put forward by William H. Riker states that parties create a coalition as large as they believe will ensure a win and no larger. If we look at the seats of the mayors of municipalities and chairpersons of rural municipalities won by the parties in the last election, they were 294, 266, 106, 34 and 3 by the UML, NC, MC, JSP and JM respectively.

The US did not exist then, and given that they were content with an ordinance of 20 per cent of seats for a party split, it can be taken as 59 in view of the 294 seats won by the UML.

It would then be 266, 106, 59, 34 and 3 for the coalition partners.

Given that there are 753 seats up for grabs, according to Riker, the coalition would be formed of the NC, MC and JSP because their total of 406 is enough to have a majority of 753 seats to form a minimum winning coalition.

According to Riker, the US and JM are unnecessary members, and their inclusion will result in unnecessary sharing of power. Besides, the US remains to be tested. The other possibility of the UML and MC as well as that of the UML, US and JSP though numerically possible is not workable due to intense animosity existing between these parties.

If this is one factor that has acted as a stumbling block for a poll alliance among the coalition partners, the other is the mindset within the NC circle that it can win the election alone in most of the places.

It is primarily because it had come a close second in many of the seats it lost last time, and there is a chance of victory because of the failure of the Nepal Communist Party to last a full term despite enjoying a two-thirds majority in the parliament.

For the left coalition members, either they have to cobble up with the NC or the UML. The second option is virtually nil because they are still at daggers drawn with the UML. So, the left parties have no option other than to be tied in wedlock with the NC.

Despite this, according to Riker, one is not very sure regarding the number of seats that a party will register victory in the election.

Again Prime Minister Deuba must be a little apprehensive because the coalition government has not been performing to the satisfaction of the people. This is the reason why he feels the need of a larger coalition to cater for a political contingency.

It can thus be seen that the pre-election events are in consonance with the coalition theory. There is bound to be dissatisfaction within the party even leading to the resignation from some members in the beginning.

But this din and dust will settle after the election comes to an end with the announcement of the new winning office bearers.

A version of this article appears in the print on April 20, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.