The agriculture department has recommended the use of dry paddy varieties that can perform fairly well in dry and hot weather. It has also suggested constructing ponds for storing rainwater to be used in times of water scarcity
The long-awaited weather prediction for the monsoon period has been made public by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. It has, however, not brought relief to the farming community as it is contrary to their expectation. It has stated that there will be less rain in the country during the paddy plantation period after the entry of the monsoon from the Bay of Bengal, which is generally in June every year.
Instead, the post-monsoon period beginning from early October is likely to receive more rain, triggering floods as well as landslides as seen in 2024. The pre-monsoon begins from March to May, followed by the monsoon from June to September, ultimately culminating in the post-monsoon from October to November.
The usual practice is to plant the paddy seeds first in the early monsoon and then transplant the paddy during the monsoon after consuming yogurt and beaten rice amid the singing, beating of drums, and splashing of mud on one another on 15th of the Nepali month of Asadh, which falls on the first of July this year.
In the case of late arrival or little rain during the monsoon, the only alternative is to plant a little late, that is, whenever it rains, but the yield dramatically comes down to the extent of 25 to 50 per cent due to the decrease in the temperature.
As if this was not enough, the department has further made a forecast about higher maximum/ minimum temperatures, thus impacting the country on two fronts like an unfortunate deer facing tigers hunting in pairs. The sparse rain on one hand followed by increased temperature on the other will come as a double blow to the country.
It is obvious that with the shift in the rainfall pattern, adjustments in crop plantation will be necessary. The seeds may have to be planted in mid-monsoon around mid-July, and paddy in late monsoon towards early August. Weeding can be carried out after the post-monsoon period in November. Because the temperature is not only going to increase, its duration may also last till November end. This should not thus decrease paddy yield as in the past. This is easier as the farmers just have to shift their activities.
If that is not the case, it is necessary to use the alternative dry paddy varieties that can thrive in less rain. The agriculture department has already recommended the use of dry paddy varieties, namely, dry-1, dry-2, dry-3 or even Khumal-10, which can perform fairly well in dry and hot weather. It has also suggested constructing ponds for storing rainwater that can be used in times of water scarcity.
Rice is a staple food of Nepal, whose production has however slumped to 5.6 million tons from the required quantum of 8 million tons every year, showing a clear deficit of 2.5 million tons. Data show that Nepal is likely to spend Rs 40 billion on importing rice this year. This amount is likely to go up further raising the trade deficit, which was around Rs 8 trillion last year, or almost 12 per cent of its Gross Domestic Product of Rs 62 trillion. This will further create an adverse impact on the country's economy, which has already been hit hard by the increase in the price of petroleum products due to the US-Iran war in the Middle East.
As for the increase in temperature, it is the Tarai which bears the brunt of it as seen in the past. Houses used to have thatch roofs that maintained the temperature to a comfortable limit even when it was hot outside. Now with the introduction of galvanized iron roofing due to fire hazards faced by thatch roofing, the interior has however become uncomfortably hot in summer and chillingly cold in winter. Whilst the temperature should range between 15 and 25 degrees Celsius in winter as well as summer respectively, it comes as low as 5 and goes up to a high of 40 degrees, making life uncomfortable.
This can however be successfully resolved by introducing a simple intervention. After the Jajarkot earthquake, temporary shelters made of galvanized iron sheeting were distributed, which acted as a fridge in winter and a furnace in summer. The people were left to bear with the extremes in the temperature like a statistician who feels comfortable with one hand in the fridge and the other in the furnace.
The columnist had inserted an insulative layer of bamboo mesh plastered by mud with the provision of a 2-inch air gap in the roof as well as the walls in the interior of such temporary shelters in Jajarkot. Upon measuring the temperature, it showed that it wavered between the desired range of 15 and 25 degrees during the cold night and hot day.
The local government can make this intervention in one of the houses in every village, inviting people to feel for themselves and extend it to their respective houses if desired. In order to ensure that mice don't create a nuisance by building a shelter in the air gap, pointed bamboo nails were inserted thereby preventing the rodents' terror.
The shift of cropping pattern along with the rainfall pattern or the use of dry seed varieties coupled with the digging of ponds for the storage of water can be a remedy for the predicted sparse rainfall this year. Similarly, the use of bamboo and mud cladding with 2-inch air gap insulation is likely to bring the much-needed relief. This technology is cheap and uses local materials like bamboo and mud, and local skills. This is well within the financial capacity of the local population, and it can be executed very fast. The local government should launch this campaign with support from the Federal and the Provincial governments immediately.