The sunk cost fallacy continues to be a pervasive force in Nepali politics, perpetuating instability, hindering reform and impeding the nation's progress
A few weeks ago, Pokhara A Metropolitan City made the controversial decision to remove the statue of King Prithvi Narayan Shah, the revered figure who unified the nation, from Prithvi Chowk. Unfortunately, this incident is just one in a series of actions that demonstrate a disregard for Nepal's rich history by its political leadership.
During the Panchayat era, advocates of multi-party democracy were severely bottled-up, leading to a deliberate omission of the life stories of prominent political figures, such as BP Koirala, Pushpalal, Manmohan Adhikari and other anti-regime leaders, from the pages of history.
Even after the restoration of multi-party democracy in 1990, statues and monuments erected in the memory of monarchs and revered figures faced acts of vandalism, reflecting a turbulent period of historical revisionism. Furthermore, the marginalisation of diverse voices within the country culminated in the republic of Nepal, where many historical narratives continue to be selectively curated, leaving out essential perspectivesand contributions.
The prevailing attitude among politicians, their associates, and even the general public, which involves neglecting historical context and clinging stubbornly to their own ideologies, can be aptly characterised as a manifestation of a cognitive bias - specifically, the sunk cost fallacy.
Sunk cost fallacy is a concept frequently employed to elucidate a common cognitive bias observed in individuals or organisations that compels them to persist in allocating additional resources, be it time, money or effort, towards a particular project or decision, even when substantial evidence suggests its failure. This irrational behaviour is primarily driven by the desire to salvage or not squander what has already been invested, despite the more rational course of action being to cut losses and redirect resources elsewhere.
A poignant historical illustration of the sunk cost fallacy can be found in the Concorde project. Notably, the British and French governments persisted in financing the development of the Concorde aircraft, even when it became unequivocally clear that there was no longer viable eco-nomic justification for its continuation. This historical episode serves as a quintessential example of the sunk cost fallacy and is sometimes colloquially referred to as the Concorde fallacy.
In politics, the sunk cost fallacy manifests as a tendency among politicians and the general public to steadfastly uphold their flawed policies and ideolo-gies, often despite mounting evidence to the contrary.
In fact, the sunk cost fallacy encourages politicians to stick with unproductive strategies, alliances or policies because they have invested heavily in them, even when it is evident that they are not working for the nation's benefit.
A fitting illustration of this attitude can be found in the justification of the decade-long armed conflict by the Maoist leaders and their supporters. Over the years, it has become increasingly apparent that the Maoist movement hasfailed to achieve its initial objectives. Despite their success in replacing a monarch with a president, the political landscape of the country remains largely unchanged.
Over the years, the economic and humanitarian conditions in the country have deteriorated significantly.
The nation has witnessed a substantial decline in key indicators.
Consequently, the young workforce is forced to seek meager employment opportunities in the Middle East and other regions.
State-sponsored corruption and nepotism, particularly in illicit activities, have reached their zenith.
Despite the pervasive negative consequences, proponents of the Maoist movement remain hesitant to acknowledge and address the inherent flaws within the movement.
On the other hand, supporters of the old regime are tenaciously advocating for the reinstatement of themonarchy in Nepal. The point to be noted is that evidences showcase the monarchy's historical contributions, such as the development of major highways, government hospitals, public schools, and the establishment of various economic zones across the country. Furthermore, during the monarchy, Nepal maintained a balanced foreign relations policy and earned utmost respect on the international stage through its diplomatic representatives.
However, the trajectory of the monarchy took a tragic turn following the royal massacre, which claimed the lives of King Birendra and his family. King Gyanendra, who ascended the throne, lacked the preparation and leadership qualities expected of a monarch that led to a period marred by mismanagement and turmoil. Nevertheless, staunch supporters of the monarchy continue to resist acknowledging that the reinstatement of monarchy in Nepal remains a distant and improbable prospect. The sunk cost fallacy appears to compel them to cling to an unattainable vision instead of accepting the prevailing reality on the ground.
To sum up, the sunk cost fallacy remains a pervasive and detrimental force in Nepali politics, perpetuating instability, obstructing reform and impeding the nation's progress. Regrettably, the major political parties seem reluctant to acknowledge that their outdated ideologies are no longer in the best interests of the nation.
To break free from this counterproductive cycle, it is imperative for the political leaders, parties and the electorate to acknowledge the damaging influence of this cognitive bias on Nepal's future. Embracing evidence-based decision-making, disregarding outdated principles, cultivating an openness to change and prioritising the welfare of the nation over past investments are essential steps to counteract the negative effects of the sunk cost fallacy on Nepali politics.
Only through these measures will Nepal be able to achieve the stability and development it deserves.
Only by taking these measures can Nepal hope to attain the stability and development it rightfully deserves.
Dr Joshi is a senior scientist and independent opinion maker based in Germanypushpa.joshi@ gmail.com
