Sarah Gauch

For Ayman Nour, a leading Egyptian opposition figure who has gained international attention for his challenge to President Hosni Mubarak’s 24-year rule, the ongoing forgery trial against him raises great possibilities — and risks.

If Nour is found guilty in the trial, which began last month, it could destroy his political career, analysts say. A not-guilty verdict will boost his credibility and popularity and abroad — even though they maintain he does not have the support to win in elections against Mubarak at this point.

Nour’s arrest, right before Egypt’s first ever multi-candidate presidential elections this September, has left many questioning whether the country is committed to democratic reform. While Cairo maintains that Nour’s trial is not politically motivated, US is closely watching this case, which has created tension between the countries.

The Egyptian government charges Nour and six others with falsifying signatures when his Al Ghad (“Tomorrow”) opposition party applied for recognition last fall. In the latest court session last Wednesday, the judge postponed the trial until Sept. 25, most likely after the polls. Maintaining his innocence, Nour claims the government raised the case against him because the authorities are afraid he could win against Mubarak, who is expected to seek a fifth six-year term. Nour’s defence got a push last month when an Al Ghad Party worker admitted that he had falsely confessed to helping Nour forge signatures under threats from Egypt’s security forces. The July 6 decision to postpone the trial, however, is seen as a setback, particularly for Nour’s presidential bid. But if the government’s strategy was to stifle Nour, his arrest and trial have instead given him greater impetus, allowing him a platform to voice his opinions. But Nour’s arrest and trial have also exposed him to criticism, analysts say. Nour’s detractors claim that he has not proved himself as a mature politician.

Born in 1964 in the Nile Delta city of Mansoura, Nour studied law at Mansoura University before becoming a journalist for the liberal Wafd Party newspaper. Rising through the party’s ranks, he eventually became an elected member of the Wafd’s higher committee. Nour then won a seat in Egypt’s parliament in 1995 and again in 2000. After he was dismissed from the Wafd in 2001, he went on to help found Al Ghad.

Despite Nour’s credentials, doubts remain about whether he has what it takes to be a major Egyptian leader. Critics claim that the media and this court case are what have brought him new fame, not his leadership abilities. Analysts agree that Nour’s public support is mainly limited to Cairo, and that he lacks the necessary strong political structure. Still, some analysts argue that Nour is a savvy, outspoken, and truly liberal politician. As leader of Al Ghad, a party whose demands include democratic reform and empowering the country’s silent majority and its youth, Nour also represents hope for the future. — The Christian Science Monitor