KATHMANDU, MAY 11:
More than 1.9 million people are projected to be affected by monsoon-related disasters this year despite forecasts of below-average rainfall, according to a government assessment.
A draft of the Monsoon Preparedness and Response National Action Plan 2083, released by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, estimates that around 1,997,731 people from 457,145 households could be impacted during the monsoon season.
The report warns that rising temperatures and extreme weather events could heighten disaster risks, even with lower rainfall. It highlights increased threats of glacial lake outburst floods in high Himalayan regions, while the Tarai and lower regions may face floods, landslides, inundation, soil erosion and flash floods.
The southern Tarai is expected to be particularly vulnerable due to rising temperatures and heatwaves.
Among the affected population, 52 percent are estimated to be women and 48 percent men. The report also identifies vulnerable groups, including around 164,000 children below five years, over 415,000 elderly people above 60, and nearly 48,000 persons with disabilities. A significant number of women of reproductive age are also at risk.
Province-wise analysis shows higher disaster risks in parts of Koshi, Madhesh, Lumbini and Sudurpashchim provinces. Authorities have urged provincial and local governments to strengthen preparedness and response measures based on risk assessments.
Ram Bahadur KC, Deputy Secretary at the authority, said relevant agencies have been directed to enhance early warning systems, identify safe shelters, stock relief materials and ensure effective rescue mechanisms.
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecast below-average rainfall across much of the country during the monsoon, alongside rising temperatures. It estimates a 55–65 percent probability of below-average rainfall in southern Karnali, most parts of Lumbini, eastern Madhesh and southern Koshi.
However, above-average rainfall is likely in most parts of Sudurpashchim, western Madhesh and central Koshi, with a probability of 45–55 percent. Northern parts of Karnali and Koshi are expected to receive near-average rainfall.
The department also projects higher-than-average maximum temperatures across most provinces, with minimum temperatures likely to remain above average nationwide.
(With inputs from RSS)