Vijaya Chalise

The delayed 12th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit has just begun. It had been delayed by a year because of growing tension between India and Pakistan. The failure to hold the yearly summit regularly has been affecting the momentum of SAARC process as a summit provides new directives, guidelines and vision that regulate the work of the organisation. SAARC had to experience difficult circumstances in the past years. However, hopes are high that the present summit meeting will approve measures for poverty alleviation in the region and sign the draft framework treaty for the operation of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA).

SAARC, established in 1985 with the aim of enhancing cooperation for economic development, is still far from coming anywhere near its fundamental goal. In 18 years of its history, it has failed to play an effective role in promoting the economy of this region due to the lackadaisical attitude of the big member states. The shifts in their priorities and their widening differences have raised questions. On the one hand, the South Asian Preferential Trading Agreement (SAPTA), which came into force in 1995, has not been effective at boosting economic activities. A number of non-tariff and para-tariff barriers have impeded it. On the other hand, the comprehensive framework for SAFTA is yet to be finalised, but the current summit has rekindled hopes.

Even though South Asia makes up 21 per cent of the world’s population, its share in global trade is hardly one per cent. Poverty in South Asian countries is, however, still a big challenge despite its huge resources. The growing dominance of bilateralism in regional trade has been a serious concern, and the shifting priorities of economically stronger countries may create new challenges to the smaller nations.

Some appear to be dreaming of a single South Asian currency in the near future. Indian media have even published a 100-rupee prototype of South Asian Reserve (SAR) currency note designed by an Indian expert. Some are giving reference to the European Union, as a model for future economic integration of South Asia with open borders and a common currency. However, the success of achieving economic goals largely depend on how bilateral issues between SAARC countries are resolved. No doubt, SAARC nations should show a strong commitment to promote intra-regional economy. Economic upliftment through intra-regional trade and commerce is not possible as long as the major players continue to ignore the economic and other legitimate interests of the smaller countries. Certainly, a SAARC regional union and a single currency are not impossible; they can be laudable long-term goals. But under the present circumstances it is not feasible. Much preparation needs to be made for that.

Unless the SAFTA framework treaty is finalised and implemented, a monetary union cannot even be conceived. As of now, certain member states, especially India and Pakistan, still deeply distrust each other and have not been able to ensure a free human movement of people, for example through the use of an ID card. Its implications have first to be investigated, studied and weighed by respective governments and they need to arrive at a consensus before entering upon such a union.

The SAARC charter does not allow bilateral issues to be raised at its forum, implying that all members should work in unison for the common benefit of the whole region by burying bilateral differences. However, in practice, this stipulation has often been ignored. As a result, several summits have been put off. Yet, the question, raised even at the past summits, is whether bilateral issues should be discussed. Pakistan wants the Kashmir dispute to be discussed at the regional forum, whereas India insists that it is bilateral. However, there has been little progress in implementing even the decisions taken by member states because of the hostile relationship between the two nuclear rivals.

For the last few years, terrorism has raised its head in the region and India blames Pakistan for cross-border terrorism, which Pakistan flatly rejects. Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf’s escape from two bids on his life within a month shows that Pakistan also is not free from terrorism. Thus, the member countries should try to address terrorism as most of them have been a victim of this problem. However, the issue already recognised at the 11th summit held in Kathmandu is yet to be worked out. Much of violence and terrorism in South Asia is rooted in deep-seated social and economic problems. Such violence will continue unabated, unless economic development of the region is accelerated. Such measures as strengthening socio-economic cooperation, addressing poverty alleviation, removing trade barriers through SAFTA and making joint efforts to deal with terrorism will go a long way.

The decision by the government of India and Pakistan to silence the guns along their borders in disputed Kashmir is a welcome sign for greater regional cooperation and promotion of peace in the region. After the 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington arms race in South Asia has intensified dangerously. It is a serious threat to South Asian regional security. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan added to the tension in the region and the emergence of nuclear power states in the region leaves a new strategic environment for South Asia. Undoubtedly, this intensified arms race is a profitable business for the developed world. South Asia is a region of paradoxes. On the one hand, it is the poorest, most illiterate and most deprived region in the world. On the other hand, it is one of the most militarised regions in the world. If the Islamabad summit plays a significant role in addressing some of these issues, including the finalisation of SAFTA, the regional body will provide a real hope for the South Asian people.

Chalise is executive editor, Gorkhapatra