Social protection serves as an umbrella term that includes social security, safety nets and initiatives aimed at reducing poverty and vulnerability
The climate crisis is now widely recognised as the most urgent global challenge of our time. A study titled An Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change in Key Sectors in Nepal, published in 2024 by the Ministry of Science Technology and Environment (MoSTE), estimates the direct cost of inaction to be equivalent to 1.5-2 percent of current GDP and could go as high as 5 percent or more during years with extreme events. The impact of these climate related disruptions falls disproportionately upon low-income communities as they are more vulnerable to climate shocks.
This situation calls for a comprehensive and multifaceted approach to address climate change related issues. One such approach lies in the potential role of social protection in addressing climate risks. The integration of social protection mechanisms with climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk management – known as adaptive social protection – is gaining traction. Both the 28th and 29th sessions of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) had devoted several important sessions on the intersection of social protection and climate change.
In COP 29, specifically the session on Safeguarding Human Development: Mobilising Climate Finance for Social Protection had emphasised the role of adaptive social protection for vulnerable households. COP29 concluded with the developed countries agreeing to help raise as much as $300 billion a year by 2035. Adaptive social protection programmes in less developed countries can tap into this funding for expansion and adequate benefits thereby improving readiness and resilience.
In addition, World Social Protection Report 2024-26, published by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) emphasises the critical role universal social protection, with benefits available to the whole population, can play in mitigating climate risks and facilitating a just transition to environmentally sustainable economies. The report indicates that over half the world's population benefits from at least one social protection programme, while 3.8 billion people lack access to any programmes. Ironically, the coverage is less in countries that are more vulnerable to climate change. The report underscores the importance of creating social protection systems that provide universal coverage with sufficient benefits, backed by sustainable financing.
According to a study conducted by ILO in 2023Extending Social Protection for All in Nepal, about 32.9 per cent of the population was covered by at least one social protection benefit during 2020-21 with an expenditure of Rs 210 billion, equivalent to 4.9 per cent of GDP. As many as 20.1 million people lack access to any social protection in the country.
Social protection serves as an umbrella term that includes social security, safety nets and initiatives aimed at reducing poverty and vulnerability. It includes a range of policies and interventions designed to provide financial assistance, access to essential services and support for individuals and communities, particularly in times of crisis. Social protection can take various forms, such as cash transfers, pensions, health insurance, unemployment benefits and food assistance, all aimed at enhancing social well-being and resilience.
The Nepal Constitution of 2015 defines social security, a relatively narrower concept than social protection, as a fundamental right of certain groups, such as senior citizens, the economically poor, Dalits, persons with disabilities, children, single women and at-risk indigenous tribes. This categorical targeting approach, unlike universal, is often criticised for leaving out those who might be deserving.
A study by Human Rights Watch conducted in 2022 found that many deserving children and informal workers were being excluded from their benefits. During COVID 19, the study revealed that those most in need did not receive any assistance, which was to a large extent because the social protection system lacked the capacity to expand its participant base.
In addition to exclusion and limited coverage of targeted groups, Nepal's widely fragmented social protection programmes suffer from limited coordination and alignment with climate change adaption and disaster risk reduction initiatives. Nepal's cash transfer programme, the Social Security Allowance, benefitting an estimated 3.4 million people, is largely poverty-focused and lacks the flexibility to expand quickly to respond to disasters and shocks.
Successful examples of adaptive social protection programmes from other countries provide valuable lessons for Nepal. The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) of Ethiopia that targets a highly climate vulnerable population is effectively integrating social protection with climate induced shocks, such as droughts. The programme public works that focus on climate-resilient infrastructure, such as irrigation and reforestation, and scaled-up assistance during droughts.
Similarly, Keyna's Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) uses satellite data and early warning systems for cash transfers during droughts. Managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), the HSNP is a shock responsive programme that can quickly expand to include additional households in need.
Likewise, the Adaptive Social Protection Programme of Columbia represents a comprehensive approach that seeks to ensure the most vulnerable populations are resilient and better equipped to recover from various shocks. The programme directs resources from conditional cash transfers to regions with the poorest households and populations in greatest risks by combining socioeconomic data with data on areas vulnerable to climate-induced events.
As Nepal prepares to graduate to a middle-income status in November 2026, it is essential for the country to have an effective and sustainable adaptive social protection system in place. The initiative can begin by integrating early warning systems and local adaptation plans with social protection, devising an adaptive financing mechanism and implementing climate responsive coverage.
Rajouria is a social policy specialist