NSO has also published life expectancies for the seven provinces using the 2021 census data. According to the NSO, life expectancy is the highest in Karnali Province despite the fact that Karnali is a remote region, and its socio-economic indicators are among the lowest in the country
Period life expectancy, or life expectancy, is a summary measure of current population health. If mortality increases in a population, life expectancy declines. Conversely, if mortality declines, life expectancy increases.
The measure is age-standardised and thus commonly employed for international comparisons of population health. In this article, the author estimates life expectancies of male and female populations using the recently published death data from the 2021 population census of Nepal.
The 2021 population census enumeration took place for 15 days from November 11 to November 25, 2021. The retrospective death data were collected for 12 months prior to the census. This period was heavily hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, and the reported cumulated death toll due to the pandemic was over 10,000.
In Nepal, compared to the 2011 population census, in absolute terms and proportionately, more deaths were reported in 2021. In 2011, the total number of reported deaths was 129,978, comprising 74,755 male deaths and 55,223 female deaths. In 2021, the number of male deaths reported was 114,946, and the number of female deaths was 83,517, resulting in the total deaths of 198,463 people.
The direct estimate of the Crude Death Rate (CDR) was 6 deaths per 1,000 male population in 2011 while in 2021 the corresponding figure rose to 8. Similarly, the direct CDR was 4 per 1,000 female population in 2011 whereas in 2021 it increased to 6. This resulted in a higher total reported direct estimate of CDR of 7 in 2021 compared to 5 in 2011 for both sexes combined.
Proportionately, higher deaths in 2021 imply that the Nepali life expectancy has declined in 2021. However, a recent publication by the National Statistics Office (NSO), Government of Nepal shows that life expectancy of the Nepali population has increased from 66.6 years in 2011 to 71.3 years in 2021.
Similarly, the NSO reported a life expectancy of 73.8 years for females and 68.2 years for males. This author estimated life expectancies for Nepal after processing the reported 2021 census death data, and accordingly the total life expectancy is 66.9 year for both the sexes combined, while for females it is estimated at 68.1 years and for males 65.6 years. A low life expectancy (68.4 years) in 2021 for Nepal has also been reported by the World Bank.
In view of the fact that the census death data reference period and the COVID-19 pandemic period are the same, and as during the pandemic, the male population was disproportionately affected, it is natural that male life expectancy was more affected than female life expectancy.
The impact of COVID-19 on the life expectancy has been reported for India, the USA and European countries, too.
The NSO estimates of life expectancies are not consistent with the Infant Mortality Rates reported by the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2022, according to which the IMR was 28 per 1,000 live births while the NSO life expectancy implies an IMR less than 18.
NSO has also published life expectancies for the seven provinces using the 2021 census data. According to the NSO, life expectancy is the highest in Karnali Province despite the fact that Karnali is a remote region, and its socio-economic indicators are among the lowest in the country. This author's estimates show that Koshi Province has the lowest life expectancy although after Bagmati Province, Koshi is taken as a prosperous province.
This is probably the effect of soaring COVID-19 infections during the second wave of the coronavirus in Koshi Province. There were also anecdotes during the pandemic that many COVID-19 deaths were not reported. Among the seven provinces, Gandaki has the highest life expectancy of 70.2 years, and the second highest life expectancy of 68.3 years is estimated for Bagmati Province.
As a summary measure of a population's mortality experience, estimates of life expectancy help one compare how different countries and provinces within a country have experienced the COVID-19 pandemic.
Compared to India, Nepal experienced much lower mortality reductions during the pandemic as India experienced about two years' reduction in life expectancy. The United States of America and the European nations also experienced about two years' drop in life expectancy.
Life expectancy at birth in Nepal was 66.6 years for both the sexes combined in 2011, and by 2021, this level increased merely by about 0.3 years, reaching 66.9 years. As the death data were from the pandemic period, the life expectancy estimate was low, and if the death data were from the non-pandemic years, the life expectancy would probably be high.
Low life expectancy is also a reflection of low capacity of the health system in providing prompt and efficient health services to the people in times of crisis.
Karki is a demographer and a former member of the National Planning commission
