The coalition could break up if Deuba and Dahal fail to find a middle path
With the election of the parliamentary party (PP) leaders of all the political parties, leaders of the ruling coalition have intensified their formal and informal discussions to form a new government under Article 76 (2) as none of the political parties have been able to secure a majority in the House of Representatives (HoR). As President Bidhya Devi Bhandari has given till December 25 to form the next government, the ruling coalition or the CPN-UML and its allies need to prove their majority to the President.
Nepali Congress (NC) president and Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was elected the NC PP leader on Wednesday, defeating his only rival Gagan Kumar Thapa, paving the way for him to become the sixth time PM with support from the CPN-Maoist Centre, CPN-Unified Socialist (US) and others. However, CPN-Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who has just 32 seats in the HoR, has also staked claim to the PM's post on a 'rotational basis'. Both Deuba and Dahal have mounted pressure on each other to become the next PM in the first round. The NC has already decided that it would not give up the premiership and the post of president, which has become more crucial due to the hung parliament. Deuba seems to be positive about handing over the baton of the government to Dahal after two years. But Dahal, who is in an advance stage of his political career, wants to secure the post in the first round.
Whether or not the ruling coalition, which contested the November 20 elections jointly, remains intact will largely depend on who first leads the next government. As the NC is averse to handing over the President's post to the Maoists, Dahal has
stuck to his guns for the PM's post given his 'decisive' number in the HoR. On the other hand, senior NC leader Ramchandra Paudel and Gagan Thapa have also proposed that Deuba should be ready to make Dahal PM in the first round so that Paudel could be elected as president. Thapa has already made clear that he and his faction would not accept any "secret political deal reached in the dark room with anyone else without official knowledge of the NC". It is likely that the ruling coalition could break up should Deuba refuse to hand over the premiership to Dahal in the first round.
The CPN-UML, the second largest party, has made up its mind not to lay any claim on forming the next government unless the CPN-Maoist and CPN-US severe ties with the NC. The ruling coalition will also need to hold extensive negotiation to share the major posts, including those of President, Vice-President, Speaker, Deputy-Speaker and chief ministers of all the provinces. Once the posts of President and PM are settled amicably, things might go ahead smoothly.
But it is a hard nut to crack given Dahal's stance on the PM's post. In case the ruling coalition fails to prove a majority in the first round, NC's PP leader Deuba could be allowed to form the next government as the largest party in the HoR. But he will have to prove his majority in the House within 30 days from the date of forming the minority government.
The possibility of forming a government through an alliance between the NC and UML cannot be ruled out as 'everything is possible in politics'. The NC- UML coalition could be the last option to avoid a snap poll so soon given their waning popularity.
Misuse of power
In a democracy, periodic elections are held to pick representatives who will work for the greater good of the people and society. Yet, despite the many democratic exercises, neither the people tend to understand why they are voting for a particular candidate nor do the elected representatives show the political will to do anything constructive. Instead the elected representatives misuse their power to distribute posts and funds to their near and dear ones. It has come to light that local representatives of a rural municipality, including the chief, in Siraha district have appointed their relatives to work as volunteer teachers in four schools without any formal appointment letter.
Definitely, this is not an isolated case, and teachers continue to be appointed to public schools across the country under pressure from those wielding power. A lot of politics is involved in the recruitment of teachers in the schools, who earn a regular salary without having to put in much effort. Hence, vacancies for permanent teachers are not fulfilled in time, and unqualified teachers are appointed to fill in the posts temporarily. You cannot expect quality to improve in the community schools until the political meddling is stopped in the education sector.
A version of this article appears in the print on December 23, 2022, of The Himalayan Times.
