Kathmandu, June 3

A seasonal outlook recently issued by the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has predicted above-normal rainfall over large tracts of South Asia during this year’s summer monsoon.

This forecast is based on different climate models and the assessment of the existing global climate conditions. The SASCOF has been preparing a common outlook on southeast monsoon season (June-September) every year since 2010, said the Meteorological Forecasting Division.

Citing the SASCOF report, the MFD said Nepal is most likely to receive normal rainfall during this year’s monsoon which generally starts on June 10 and spreads over the country in a few days, and remains effective till September 23.

“If it is to analyse on a region-wise basis, some areas of the Tarai in the central and far-western regions will receive above-normal rainfall while hilly areas are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining parts of the country,” it said.

However, the report has not predicted the exact date of the onset of monsoon.

There is strong consensus among experts that the prevailing moderate El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific will weaken to a neutral level by the middle of the southwest monsoon season with the possibility of La Niña conditions developing in the later part of the season, resulting in stronger effect of monsoon across the country.

Nepal receives an average of 80 per cent of annual rainfall during monsoon, which originates in the Bay of Bengal and moves along the southern flanks of the Himalayas.