Party projected to win 183 of 275 seats; established parties face near-wipeout
KATHMANDU, MARCH 7
The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is heading for an outright parliamentary majority of historic proportions, having won 60 seats outright and leading in 61 more from 163 of 165 constituencies declared in the direct voting count, according to the Election Commission of Nepal.
A seat projection based on current trends puts the party on course for 183 of the 275 seats in the full House of Representatives - just one seat short of a two-thirds majority.
If the projection holds, the RSP would form a government on its own, ending decades of coalition politics that have defined, and frequently destabilised, Nepal's governance since the restoration of democracy.
In the direct vote count, the Nepali Congress has won 9 seats and leads in 9 more. The CPN-UML has won 3 and leads in 9. The Nepali Communist Party has won 1 and leads in 6. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party has won 1 seat. An independent candidate has won 1. The Shram Sanskriti Party leads in 3 without a confirmed win. Two constituencies are yet to report.
The proportional vote count, covering a total of 579,310 votes entered into the system so far, reinforces the same picture. The RSP has received 310,476 proportional votes, more than all other parties combined. The Nepali Congress is a distant second with 94,208, followed by CPN-UML with 76,059, the Nepali Communist Party with 32,427 and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party with 24,405.
Under the projection, which accounts for both direct and proportional seats, the full 275-seat House would likely to break down as follows: RSP 183, Nepali Congress 35, CPN-UML 24, Nepali Communist Party 17, RPP 8 and others 8. The majority threshold stands at 138 seats; the RSP is projected to exceed it by 45.
The result, when finalised, would represent the most dramatic realignment of political power in Nepal's modern democratic history, a party that contested its first general election only in 2022 poised to govern alone, while parties that have dominated Nepali politics for generations are reduced to a fraction of their former strength.
Formal declarations by returning officers are continuing across the country. The Election Commission is expected to announce final results over the coming days.